Forecasting of COVID19 per regions using ARIMA models and polynomial functions

• Published in: Applied soft computing Vol. 96; p. 106610
• Main Authors: Hernandez-Matamoros, Andres, Fujita, Hamido, Hayashi, Toshitaka, Perez-Meana, Hector
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Elsevier B.V 01.11.2020
• Subjects: ARIMA model; Covid-19 epidemic; Forecast; Geographic region; Covid-19 epidemic; ARIMA model; Forecast; Geographic region
• DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106610
• ISSN: 1568-4946

COVID-2019 is a global threat, for this reason around the world, researches have been focused on topics such as to detect it, prevent it, cure it, and predict it. Different analyses propose models to predict the evolution of this epidemic. These analyses propose models for specific geographical areas, specific countries, or create a global model. The models give us the possibility to predict the virus behavior, it could be used to make future response plans. This work presents an analysis of COVID-19 spread that shows a different angle for the whole world, through 6 geographic regions (continents). We propose to create a relationship between the countries, which are in the same geographical area to predict the advance of the virus. The countries in the same geographic region have variables with similar values (quantifiable and non-quantifiable), which affect the spread of the virus. We propose an algorithm to performed and evaluated the ARIMA model for 145 countries, which are distributed into 6 regions. Then, we construct a model for these regions using the ARIMA parameters, the population per 1M people, the number of cases, and polynomial functions. The proposal is able to predict the COVID-19 cases with a RMSE average of 144.81. The main outcome of this paper is showing a relation between COVID-19 behavior and population in a region, these results show us the opportunity to create more models to predict the COVID-19 behavior using variables as humidity, climate, culture, among others.