The extreme 2016 wheat yield failure in France

France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiolog...

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Published inGlobal change biology Vol. 29; no. 11; pp. 3130 - 3146
Main Authors Nóia Júnior, Rogério de S., Deswarte, Jean‐Charles, Cohan, Jean‐Pierre, Martre, Pierre, Velde, Marijn, Lecerf, Remi, Webber, Heidi, Ewert, Frank, Ruane, Alex C., Slafer, Gustavo A., Asseng, Senthold
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.06.2023
Wiley
Subjects
Agricultural sciences
Anoxia
Blight
climate
Climate change
Climate effects
Cloud cover
compounding factors
crop models
Crop yield
data collection
ear blight
Ecology, environment
Edible Grain
extreme weather
florets
Flowering
Foliar diseases
food security
France
fungi
Grain
grain number
grain size
grain yield
hypoxia
Life Sciences
Mathematical models
physiology
Radiation damage
rain
Rainfall
Soil
Solar radiation
Statistical analysis
temporally and multivariate events
Triticum - physiology
Wheat
France
grain size
extreme weather
compounding factors
temporally and multivariate events
grain number
food security
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Abstract France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases, and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.
AbstractList France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases, and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.
France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases, and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases, and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.
Author Ewert, Frank
Webber, Heidi
Velde, Marijn
Martre, Pierre
Nóia Júnior, Rogério de S.
Slafer, Gustavo A.
Cohan, Jean‐Pierre
Deswarte, Jean‐Charles
Asseng, Senthold
Lecerf, Remi
Ruane, Alex C.
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Issue 11
Keywords grain size
extreme weather
compounding factors
temporally and multivariate events
grain number
food security
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Snippet France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the...
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crossref
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SubjectTerms Agricultural sciences
Anoxia
Blight
climate
Climate change
Climate effects
Cloud cover
compounding factors
crop models
Crop yield
data collection
ear blight
Ecology, environment
Edible Grain
extreme weather
florets
Flowering
Foliar diseases
food security
France
fungi
Grain
grain number
grain size
grain yield
hypoxia
Life Sciences
Mathematical models
physiology
Radiation damage
rain
Rainfall
Soil
Solar radiation
Statistical analysis
temporally and multivariate events
Triticum - physiology
Wheat
Title The extreme 2016 wheat yield failure in France
URI https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111%2Fgcb.16662
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36951185
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2808136851
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2790049209
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2834233006
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04072073
Volume 29
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