Predicting mid-life capital formation with pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation
•Self-regulation composite (preschool & ages 17-37) predicts capital formation at 46.•Preschool delay of gratification alone does not predict capital formation at 46.•The composite is more predictive partly because it consists of many items.•No evidence of more predictive power for self-regulati...
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| Published in | Journal of economic behavior & organization Vol. 179; pp. 743 - 756 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Netherlands
Elsevier B.V
01.11.2020
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0167-2681 1879-1751 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jebo.2019.08.016 |
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| Abstract | •Self-regulation composite (preschool & ages 17-37) predicts capital formation at 46.•Preschool delay of gratification alone does not predict capital formation at 46.•The composite is more predictive partly because it consists of many items.•No evidence of more predictive power for self-regulation reported later in life.
How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of the 1967–1973 Bing pre-school studies on delay of gratification when they were in their late 40’s. They reported 11 mid-life capital formation outcomes, including net worth, permanent income, absence of high-interest debt, forward-looking behaviors, and educational attainment. To address multiple hypothesis testing and our small sample, we pre-registered an analysis plan of well–powered tests. As predicted, a newly constructed and pre-registered measure derived from preschool delay of gratification does not predict the 11 capital formation variables (i.e., the sign-adjusted average correlation was 0.02). A pre-registered composite self-regulation index, combining preschool delay of gratification with survey measures of self-regulation collected at ages 17, 27, and 37, does predict 10 of the 11 capital formation variables in the expected direction, with an average correlation of 0.19. The inclusion of the preschool delay of gratification measure in this composite index does not affect the index’s predictive power. We tested several hypothesized reasons that preschool delay of gratification does not have predictive power for our mid-life capital formation variables. |
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| AbstractList | How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of the 1967-1973 Bing pre-school studies on delay of gratification when they were in their late 40's. They reported 11 mid-life capital formation outcomes, including net worth, permanent income, absence of high-interest debt, forward-looking behaviors, and educational attainment. To address multiple hypothesis testing and our small sample, we pre-registered an analysis plan of well-powered tests. As predicted, a newly constructed and pre-registered measure derived from preschool delay of gratification does not predict the 11 capital formation variables (i.e., the sign-adjusted average correlation was 0.02). A pre-registered composite self-regulation index, combining preschool delay of gratification with survey measures of self-regulation collected at ages 17, 27, and 37, does predict 10 of the 11 capital formation variables in the expected direction, with an average correlation of 0.19. The inclusion of the preschool delay of gratification measure in this composite index does not affect the index's predictive power. We tested several hypothesized reasons that preschool delay of gratification does not have predictive power for our mid-life capital formation variables. •Self-regulation composite (preschool & ages 17-37) predicts capital formation at 46.•Preschool delay of gratification alone does not predict capital formation at 46.•The composite is more predictive partly because it consists of many items.•No evidence of more predictive power for self-regulation reported later in life. How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of the 1967–1973 Bing pre-school studies on delay of gratification when they were in their late 40’s. They reported 11 mid-life capital formation outcomes, including net worth, permanent income, absence of high-interest debt, forward-looking behaviors, and educational attainment. To address multiple hypothesis testing and our small sample, we pre-registered an analysis plan of well–powered tests. As predicted, a newly constructed and pre-registered measure derived from preschool delay of gratification does not predict the 11 capital formation variables (i.e., the sign-adjusted average correlation was 0.02). A pre-registered composite self-regulation index, combining preschool delay of gratification with survey measures of self-regulation collected at ages 17, 27, and 37, does predict 10 of the 11 capital formation variables in the expected direction, with an average correlation of 0.19. The inclusion of the preschool delay of gratification measure in this composite index does not affect the index’s predictive power. We tested several hypothesized reasons that preschool delay of gratification does not have predictive power for our mid-life capital formation variables. How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of the 1967-1973 Bing pre-school studies on delay of gratification when they were in their late 40's. They reported 11 mid-life capital formation outcomes, including net worth, permanent income, absence of high-interest debt, forward-looking behaviors, and educational attainment. To address multiple hypothesis testing and our small sample, we pre-registered an analysis plan of well-powered tests. As predicted, a newly constructed and pre-registered measure derived from preschool delay of gratification does not predict the 11 capital formation variables (i.e., the sign-adjusted average correlation was 0.02). A pre-registered composite self-regulation index, combining preschool delay of gratification with survey measures of self-regulation collected at ages 17, 27, and 37, does predict 10 of the 11 capital formation variables in the expected direction, with an average correlation of 0.19. The inclusion of the preschool delay of gratification measure in this composite index does not affect the index's predictive power. We tested several hypothesized reasons that preschool delay of gratification does not have predictive power for our mid-life capital formation variables.How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of the 1967-1973 Bing pre-school studies on delay of gratification when they were in their late 40's. They reported 11 mid-life capital formation outcomes, including net worth, permanent income, absence of high-interest debt, forward-looking behaviors, and educational attainment. To address multiple hypothesis testing and our small sample, we pre-registered an analysis plan of well-powered tests. As predicted, a newly constructed and pre-registered measure derived from preschool delay of gratification does not predict the 11 capital formation variables (i.e., the sign-adjusted average correlation was 0.02). A pre-registered composite self-regulation index, combining preschool delay of gratification with survey measures of self-regulation collected at ages 17, 27, and 37, does predict 10 of the 11 capital formation variables in the expected direction, with an average correlation of 0.19. The inclusion of the preschool delay of gratification measure in this composite index does not affect the index's predictive power. We tested several hypothesized reasons that preschool delay of gratification does not have predictive power for our mid-life capital formation variables. |
| Author | Laibson, David Mischel, Walter Shoda, Yuichi Benjamin, Daniel J. Wilson, Nicole L. Wellsjo, Alexandra Steiny Peake, Philip K. |
| AuthorAffiliation | e Department of Psychology, Smith College, Northampton, MA 01063, United States b National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States f Department of Psychology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States h Department of Management, Lundquist College of Business, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, United States d Department of Psychology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States g Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States c Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States a Center for Economic and Social Research and Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, United States |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: c Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States – name: g Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States – name: e Department of Psychology, Smith College, Northampton, MA 01063, United States – name: h Department of Management, Lundquist College of Business, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, United States – name: f Department of Psychology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States – name: a Center for Economic and Social Research and Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, United States – name: d Department of Psychology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States – name: b National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Daniel J. surname: Benjamin fullname: Benjamin, Daniel J. organization: Center for Economic and Social Research and Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, United States – sequence: 2 givenname: David surname: Laibson fullname: Laibson, David organization: National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States – sequence: 3 givenname: Walter surname: Mischel fullname: Mischel, Walter organization: Department of Psychology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States – sequence: 4 givenname: Philip K. surname: Peake fullname: Peake, Philip K. organization: Department of Psychology, Smith College, Northampton, MA 01063, United States – sequence: 5 givenname: Yuichi surname: Shoda fullname: Shoda, Yuichi organization: Department of Management, Lundquist College of Business, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, United States – sequence: 6 givenname: Alexandra Steiny surname: Wellsjo fullname: Wellsjo, Alexandra Steiny email: alexsteiny@berkeley.edu organization: Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States – sequence: 7 givenname: Nicole L. surname: Wilson fullname: Wilson, Nicole L. organization: Department of Psychology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, United States |
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| Snippet | •Self-regulation composite (preschool & ages 17-37) predicts capital formation at 46.•Preschool delay of gratification alone does not predict capital formation... How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of... |
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| SubjectTerms | Delay of gratification Mid-life capital formation Self-regulation |
| Title | Predicting mid-life capital formation with pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.08.016 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33424063 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2476847364 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC7792663 |
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