Using Specific Language to Describe Risk and Probability
Good assessment of environmental issues, such as climate change, requires effective communication of the degree of uncertainty associated with numerous possible outcomes. One strategy that accomplishes this, while responding to people's difficulty understanding numeric probability estimates, is...
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| Published in | Climatic change Vol. 61; no. 1-2; pp. 17 - 30 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Dordrecht
Springer
01.11.2003
Springer Nature B.V |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0165-0009 1573-1480 |
| DOI | 10.1023/A:1026314523443 |
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| Abstract | Good assessment of environmental issues, such as climate change, requires effective communication of the degree of uncertainty associated with numerous possible outcomes. One strategy that accomplishes this, while responding to people's difficulty understanding numeric probability estimates, is the use of specific language to describe probability ranges. This is the strategy adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their Third Assessment Report. There is a problem with this strategy, however, in that it uses words differently from the way lay readers of the assessment typically do. An experiment conducted with undergraduate science students confirms this. The IPCC strategy could result in miscommunication, leading readers to under-estimate the probability of high-magnitude possible outcomes. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] |
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| AbstractList | Good assessment of environmental issues, such as climate change, requires effective communication of the degree of uncertainty associated with numerous possible outcomes. One strategy that accomplishes this, while responding to people's difficulty understanding numeric probability estimates, is the use of specific language to describe probability ranges. This is the strategy adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their Third Assessment Report. There is a problem with this strategy, however, in that it uses words differently from the way lay readers of the assessment typically do. An experiment conducted with undergraduate science students confirms this. The IPCC strategy could result in miscommunication, leading readers to under-estimate the probability of high-magnitude possible outcomes. Good assessment of environmental issues, such as climate change, requires effective communication of the degree of uncertainty associated with numerous possible outcomes. One strategy that accomplishes this, while responding to people's difficulty understanding numeric probability estimates, is the use of specific language to describe probability ranges. This is the strategy adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their Third Assessment Report. There is a problem with this strategy, however, in that it uses words differently from the way lay readers of the assessment typically do. An experiment conducted with undergraduate science students confirms this. The IPCC strategy could result in miscommunication, leading readers to under-estimate the probability of high-magnitude possible outcomes. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] The potential biases that could result from the possible mismatch between the International Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) use of words describing probability and people's intuitive understanding of their meaning were explored. Results are presented from a simple experiment in which the use and interpretation of descriptive words used to describe potential weather events were tested. The experiment involved 152 undergraduate science students at Boston University. Half of the surveys asked subjects to translate numeric probabilities into words by choosing one of seven descriptive terms, and the other half of the surveys asked subjects to assign a probability range to an event described as unlikely, perhaps very unlikely. Results show significant differences between the two outcomes across the two groups of subjects. The exaggeration by risk communicators of the likelihood of high consequence events was expected by the subjects and decoded accordingly, a concept that will need to be accepted by the IPCC strategy in which each descriptive word is assigned a specific probability range that is insensitive to event magnitude. |
| Author | Patt, Anthony G. Schrag, Daniel P. |
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| Title | Using Specific Language to Describe Risk and Probability |
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