Importance of early weight loss and other predictors of lower weight loss in a commercial program: A secondary data analysis

• Published in: Obesity science & practice Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. e724 - n/a
• Main Authors: Coleman, Christopher D., Kiel, Jessica R., Guarneiri, Liana L., Bell, Marjorie, Wilcox, Meredith L., Maki, Kevin C., Unick, Jessica L., Jonnalagadda, Satya S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.02.2024; John Wiley and Sons Inc; Wiley
• Subjects: Body fat; Intervention; meal replacements; non‐responder; Original; Overweight; Variance analysis; Weight; Weight control; weight loss; United States > US; weight loss; meal replacements; non‐responder
• ISSN: 2055-2238; 2055-2238
• DOI: 10.1002/osp4.724

Objective There is substantial inter‐individual variability in response to weight loss interventions and emerging evidence suggests that weight loss during the early weeks of an intervention may be predictive of longer‐term weight loss. This secondary analysis of data from a commercial program therefore examined 1) the associations between early weight loss (i.e., week 4) with final visit weight loss and duration on the program, and 2) other predictors of lower weight loss at final visit. Methods Client charts of adults with overweight or obesity (N = 748) were analyzed. Clients were stratified into categories of weight loss at the week 4 (< and ≥2%, 3% and 4%) and final visits (< and ≥5% and 10%). Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess predictors of <5% and <10% final visit weight loss. Results The odds ratios for losing <5% or <10% of weight at the final visit were higher (49.0 (95% CI: 13.84, 173.63) and 20.1 (95% CI: 6.96, 58.06)) for clients who lost <2% or <3% compared to those who lost ≥2% or ≥3% at week 4. Other predictors of not losing a clinically relevant amount of weight included female sex, use of higher calorie meal plans and shorter time in the program, among others. Those who lost ≥2% at week 4 also had a significantly greater percent program completion (109.2 ± 75.2% vs. 82.3 ± 82.4, p < 0.01) compared with those who did not meet the 2% threshold. Conclusions Lower 4‐week weight loss was identified as a strong predictor of not losing a clinically relevant amount of weight. These results may be useful for the early identification of individuals who can be targeted for additional counseling and support to aid in attaining weight loss goals. This analysis adds to the growing evidence suggesting that weight loss during the early weeks of an intervention may be predictive of longer‐term success. To our knowledge, this analysis is also the first to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of various weight loss thresholds within the context of a commercial weight loss program. An additional unique aspect of this study, not typically evaluable in clinical trials that have a defined study length or within research trials which incentivize participants for study completion, is the evaluation of the relationship between early weight loss and time spent in the program.