An update on Bayesian updating

• Published in: Journal of economic behavior & organization Vol. 69; no. 2; pp. 125 - 134
• Main Authors: Holt, Charles A., Smith, Angela M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.02.2009; Elsevier; Elsevier Sequoia S.A
• Series: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
• Subjects: Avoidance; Baye's rule; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian method; Bias; Experiments; Information processing; Laboratory experiments; Laboratory experiments Baye's rule Probability weighting; Methodology; Probability; Probability weighting; Risks; Studies; Updating; C91; Probability weighting; Baye's rule; Laboratory experiments; D83

This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker–DeGroot–Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The...