An update on Bayesian updating

This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker–DeGroot–Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of economic behavior & organization Vol. 69; no. 2; pp. 125 - 134
Main Authors Holt, Charles A., Smith, Angela M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.02.2009
Elsevier
Elsevier Sequoia S.A
SeriesJournal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Subjects
Avoidance
Baye's rule
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian method
Bias
Experiments
Information processing
Laboratory experiments
Laboratory experiments Baye's rule Probability weighting
Methodology
Probability
Probability weighting
Risks
Studies
Updating
C91
Probability weighting
Baye's rule
Laboratory experiments
D83
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Summary:This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker–DeGroot–Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The focus is on the pattern of biases in information processing.
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ISSN:0167-2681
1879-1751
DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2007.08.013