Global Carbon Budget 2020
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate polic...
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Published in | Earth system science data Vol. 12; no. 4; pp. 3269 - 3340 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Katlenburg-Lindau
Copernicus GmbH
11.12.2020
Copernicus Publications |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Abstract | Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020). |
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AbstractList | Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020). Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions ( EFOS ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change ( ELUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate ( GATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink ( SOCEAN ) and terrestrial CO 2 sink ( SLAND ) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance ( BIM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ . For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 . For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr −1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr −1 ), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr −1 , and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 , with a budget imbalance BIM of − 0.1 GtC yr −1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO 2 ). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr −1 , and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr −1 , with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about − 7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of − 6 %, − 7 %, − 7 % ( − 3 % to − 11 %), and − 13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020). Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO.sub.2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate - the "global carbon budget" - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO.sub.2 emissions (E.sub.FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E.sub.LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO.sub.2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G.sub.ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO.sub.2 sink (S.sub.OCEAN) and terrestrial CO.sub.2 sink (S.sub.LAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B.sub.IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1Ï. For the last decade available (2010-2019), E.sub.FOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr.sup.-1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr.sup.-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E.sub.LUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr.sup.-1 . For the same decade, G.sub.ATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr.sup.-1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr.sup.-1 ), S.sub.OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr.sup.-1, and S.sub.LAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr.sup.-1, with a budget imbalance B.sub.IM of -0.1 GtC yr.sup.-1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in E.sub.FOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr.sup.-1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr.sup.-1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and E.sub.LUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr.sup.-1, for total anthropogenic CO.sub.2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr.sup.-1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO.sub.2). Also for 2019, G.sub.ATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr.sup.-1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr.sup.-1 ), S.sub.OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr.sup.-1, and S.sub.LAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr.sup.-1, with a B.sub.IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO.sub.2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in E.sub.FOS relative to 2019 of about -7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of -6 %, -7 %, -7 % (-3 % to -11 %), and -13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr.sup.-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO.sub.2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO.sub.2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), andELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr-1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of -0.1 GtC yr-1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about -7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of -6 %, -7 %,-7 % (-3 % to -11 %), and -13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020). |
Audience | Academic |
Author | Gehlen, Marion Tanhua, Toste Chevallier, Frédéric Tian, Hanqin Gregor, Luke Smith, Adam J. P. Wiltshire, Andrew J. Jones, Matthew W. Aragão, Luiz E. O. C. Munro, David R. Chini, Louise P. Joetzjer, Emilie Ilyina, Tatiana Tans, Pieter P. Jackson, Robert B. Gruber, Nicolas Poulter, Benjamin Peters, Wouter Liu, Zhu Houghton, Richard A. Harris, Ian Gilfillan, Dennis Rödenbeck, Christian Watson, Andrew J. Wanninkhof, Rik Peters, Glen P. Kadono, Koji Resplandy, Laure Lombardozzi, Danica Robertson, Eddy Evans, Wiley Marland, Gregg Jain, Atul K. Le Quéré, Corinne Zaehle, Sönke Walker, Anthony P. Skjelvan, Ingunn Friedlingstein, Pierre Becker, Meike Korsbakken, Jan Ivar Sitch, Stephen Kato, Etsushi Yuan, Wenping O'Sullivan, Michael Alin, Simone Andrew, Robbie M. Pierrot, Denis Ono, Tsuneo Nabel, Julia E. M. S. Bittig, Henry C. Lefèvre, Nathalie Lienert, Sebastian Olsen, Are Bopp, Laurent Gkritzalis, Thanos Metzl, Nicolas Ciais, Philippe Haverd, Vanessa Arora, Vivek Chandra, Naveen Forster, Piers M. Lenton, Andrew Palmer, Paul I. Séférian, Roland Canadell, J |
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S. – sequence: 58 givenname: Shin-Ichiro orcidid: 0000-0002-3870-1721 surname: Nakaoka fullname: Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro – sequence: 59 givenname: Yosuke orcidid: 0000-0002-7600-9816 surname: Niwa fullname: Niwa, Yosuke – sequence: 60 givenname: Kevin surname: O'Brien fullname: O'Brien, Kevin – sequence: 61 givenname: Tsuneo orcidid: 0000-0003-3472-5731 surname: Ono fullname: Ono, Tsuneo – sequence: 62 givenname: Paul I. orcidid: 0000-0002-1487-0969 surname: Palmer fullname: Palmer, Paul I. – sequence: 63 givenname: Denis orcidid: 0000-0002-0374-3825 surname: Pierrot fullname: Pierrot, Denis – sequence: 64 givenname: Benjamin orcidid: 0000-0002-9493-8600 surname: Poulter fullname: Poulter, Benjamin – sequence: 65 givenname: Laure orcidid: 0000-0002-1212-3943 surname: Resplandy fullname: Resplandy, Laure – sequence: 66 givenname: Eddy surname: Robertson fullname: Robertson, Eddy – sequence: 67 givenname: Christian orcidid: 0000-0001-6011-6249 surname: Rödenbeck fullname: Rödenbeck, Christian – sequence: 68 givenname: Jörg orcidid: 0000-0002-7525-6882 surname: Schwinger fullname: Schwinger, Jörg – sequence: 69 givenname: Roland orcidid: 0000-0002-2571-2114 surname: Séférian fullname: Séférian, Roland – sequence: 70 givenname: Ingunn orcidid: 0000-0001-6761-5016 surname: Skjelvan fullname: Skjelvan, Ingunn – sequence: 71 givenname: Adam J. 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P. – sequence: 72 givenname: Adrienne J. orcidid: 0000-0002-7414-7035 surname: Sutton fullname: Sutton, Adrienne J. – sequence: 73 givenname: Toste orcidid: 0000-0002-0313-2557 surname: Tanhua fullname: Tanhua, Toste – sequence: 74 givenname: Pieter P. surname: Tans fullname: Tans, Pieter P. – sequence: 75 givenname: Hanqin orcidid: 0000-0002-1806-4091 surname: Tian fullname: Tian, Hanqin – sequence: 76 givenname: Bronte orcidid: 0000-0001-9385-3827 surname: Tilbrook fullname: Tilbrook, Bronte – sequence: 77 givenname: Guido orcidid: 0000-0001-9042-8630 surname: van der Werf fullname: van der Werf, Guido – sequence: 78 givenname: Nicolas orcidid: 0000-0002-3397-7948 surname: Vuichard fullname: Vuichard, Nicolas – sequence: 79 givenname: Anthony P. orcidid: 0000-0003-0557-5594 surname: Walker fullname: Walker, Anthony P. – sequence: 80 givenname: Rik surname: Wanninkhof fullname: Wanninkhof, Rik – sequence: 81 givenname: Andrew J. orcidid: 0000-0002-9654-8147 surname: Watson fullname: Watson, Andrew J. – sequence: 82 givenname: David surname: Willis fullname: Willis, David – sequence: 83 givenname: Andrew J. surname: Wiltshire fullname: Wiltshire, Andrew J. – sequence: 84 givenname: Wenping surname: Yuan fullname: Yuan, Wenping – sequence: 85 givenname: Xu orcidid: 0000-0002-8861-8192 surname: Yue fullname: Yue, Xu – sequence: 86 givenname: Sönke orcidid: 0000-0001-5602-7956 surname: Zaehle fullname: Zaehle, Sönke |
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