Dynamic risk stratification using Markov chain modelling in patients with chronic heart failure

Aims Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial intelligence in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods and results We described the pattern of behaviour among 7496 consecutive pa...

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Published inESC Heart Failure Vol. 9; no. 5; pp. 3009 - 3018
Main Authors Kazmi, Syed, Kambhampati, Chandrasekhar, Cleland, John G.F., Cuthbert, Joe, Kazmi, Khurram Shehzad, Pellicori, Pierpaolo, Rigby, Alan S., Clark, Andrew L.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.10.2022
John Wiley and Sons Inc
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Abstract Aims Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial intelligence in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods and results We described the pattern of behaviour among 7496 consecutive patients assessed for suspected HF. The following mutually exclusive health states were defined and assessed every 4 months: death, hospitalization, outpatient visit, no event, and leaving the service altogether (defined as no event at any point following assessment). The observed figures at the first transition (4 months) weres 427 (6%), 1559 (21%), 2254 (30%), 1414 (19%), and 1842 (25%), respectively. The probabilities derived from the first two transitions (i.e. from baseline to 4 months and from 4 to 8 months) were used to construct the model. An example of the model's prediction is that at cycle 4, the cumulative probability of death was 14%; leaving the system, 37%; being hospitalized between 12 and 16 months, 10%; having an outpatient visit, 8%; and having no event, 31%. The corresponding observed figures were 14%, 41%, 10%, 15%, and 21%, respectively. The model predicted that during the first 2 years, a patient had a probability of dying of 0.19, and the observed value was 0.18. Conclusions A model derived from the first 8 months of follow‐up is strongly predictive of future events in a population of patients with chronic heart failure. The course of CHF is more linear than is commonly supposed, and thus more predictable.
AbstractList AIMSRisk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial intelligence in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTSWe described the pattern of behaviour among 7496 consecutive patients assessed for suspected HF. The following mutually exclusive health states were defined and assessed every 4 months: death, hospitalization, outpatient visit, no event, and leaving the service altogether (defined as no event at any point following assessment). The observed figures at the first transition (4 months) weres 427 (6%), 1559 (21%), 2254 (30%), 1414 (19%), and 1842 (25%), respectively. The probabilities derived from the first two transitions (i.e. from baseline to 4 months and from 4 to 8 months) were used to construct the model. An example of the model's prediction is that at cycle 4, the cumulative probability of death was 14%; leaving the system, 37%; being hospitalized between 12 and 16 months, 10%; having an outpatient visit, 8%; and having no event, 31%. The corresponding observed figures were 14%, 41%, 10%, 15%, and 21%, respectively. The model predicted that during the first 2 years, a patient had a probability of dying of 0.19, and the observed value was 0.18. CONCLUSIONSA model derived from the first 8 months of follow-up is strongly predictive of future events in a population of patients with chronic heart failure. The course of CHF is more linear than is commonly supposed, and thus more predictable.
Abstract Aims Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial intelligence in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods and results We described the pattern of behaviour among 7496 consecutive patients assessed for suspected HF. The following mutually exclusive health states were defined and assessed every 4 months: death, hospitalization, outpatient visit, no event, and leaving the service altogether (defined as no event at any point following assessment). The observed figures at the first transition (4 months) weres 427 (6%), 1559 (21%), 2254 (30%), 1414 (19%), and 1842 (25%), respectively. The probabilities derived from the first two transitions (i.e. from baseline to 4 months and from 4 to 8 months) were used to construct the model. An example of the model's prediction is that at cycle 4, the cumulative probability of death was 14%; leaving the system, 37%; being hospitalized between 12 and 16 months, 10%; having an outpatient visit, 8%; and having no event, 31%. The corresponding observed figures were 14%, 41%, 10%, 15%, and 21%, respectively. The model predicted that during the first 2 years, a patient had a probability of dying of 0.19, and the observed value was 0.18. Conclusions A model derived from the first 8 months of follow‐up is strongly predictive of future events in a population of patients with chronic heart failure. The course of CHF is more linear than is commonly supposed, and thus more predictable.
Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial intelligence in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). We described the pattern of behaviour among 7496 consecutive patients assessed for suspected HF. The following mutually exclusive health states were defined and assessed every 4 months: death, hospitalization, outpatient visit, no event, and leaving the service altogether (defined as no event at any point following assessment). The observed figures at the first transition (4 months) weres 427 (6%), 1559 (21%), 2254 (30%), 1414 (19%), and 1842 (25%), respectively. The probabilities derived from the first two transitions (i.e. from baseline to 4 months and from 4 to 8 months) were used to construct the model. An example of the model's prediction is that at cycle 4, the cumulative probability of death was 14%; leaving the system, 37%; being hospitalized between 12 and 16 months, 10%; having an outpatient visit, 8%; and having no event, 31%. The corresponding observed figures were 14%, 41%, 10%, 15%, and 21%, respectively. The model predicted that during the first 2 years, a patient had a probability of dying of 0.19, and the observed value was 0.18. A model derived from the first 8 months of follow-up is strongly predictive of future events in a population of patients with chronic heart failure. The course of CHF is more linear than is commonly supposed, and thus more predictable.
Aims Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial intelligence in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods and results We described the pattern of behaviour among 7496 consecutive patients assessed for suspected HF. The following mutually exclusive health states were defined and assessed every 4 months: death, hospitalization, outpatient visit, no event, and leaving the service altogether (defined as no event at any point following assessment). The observed figures at the first transition (4 months) weres 427 (6%), 1559 (21%), 2254 (30%), 1414 (19%), and 1842 (25%), respectively. The probabilities derived from the first two transitions (i.e. from baseline to 4 months and from 4 to 8 months) were used to construct the model. An example of the model's prediction is that at cycle 4, the cumulative probability of death was 14%; leaving the system, 37%; being hospitalized between 12 and 16 months, 10%; having an outpatient visit, 8%; and having no event, 31%. The corresponding observed figures were 14%, 41%, 10%, 15%, and 21%, respectively. The model predicted that during the first 2 years, a patient had a probability of dying of 0.19, and the observed value was 0.18. Conclusions A model derived from the first 8 months of follow‐up is strongly predictive of future events in a population of patients with chronic heart failure. The course of CHF is more linear than is commonly supposed, and thus more predictable.
Author Cleland, John G.F.
Kazmi, Syed
Kazmi, Khurram Shehzad
Kambhampati, Chandrasekhar
Clark, Andrew L.
Cuthbert, Joe
Pellicori, Pierpaolo
Rigby, Alan S.
AuthorAffiliation 2 Department of Computer Science and Technology University of Hull Hull UK
3 Robertson Centre for Biostatistics and Clinical Trials University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
4 Department of Cardiorespiratory Medicine, Centre for Clinical Sciences, Hull York Medical School University of Hull Hull UK
1 Department of Academic Cardiology Hull University Teaching Hospital NHS Trust Hull UK
6 Hull York Medical School University of Hull Hull UK
5 Department of General Medicine Ghurki Trust Teaching Hospital Lahore Pakistan
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 1 Department of Academic Cardiology Hull University Teaching Hospital NHS Trust Hull UK
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– name: 5 Department of General Medicine Ghurki Trust Teaching Hospital Lahore Pakistan
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ContentType Journal Article
Copyright 2022 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.
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Issue 5
Keywords Heart failure
Disease trajectory
Artificial intelligence
Absorbing Markov chains
Machine learning
Language English
License Attribution
2022 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.
This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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Notes This work was performed at the Department of Academic Cardiology, Castle Hill Hospital, University of Hull, Hull, UK.
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Snippet Aims Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial...
Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial...
AimsRisk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial...
AIMSRisk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using artificial...
Abstract Aims Risk changes with the progression of disease and the impact of treatment. We developed a dynamic risk stratification Markov chain model using...
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SubjectTerms Absorbing Markov chains
Artificial Intelligence
Chronic Disease
Disease trajectory
Ejection fraction
Health care
Heart failure
Heart Failure - epidemiology
Heart Failure - therapy
Hospitalization
Hospitals
Humans
Machine learning
Markov analysis
Markov Chains
Mortality
Original
Patients
Population
Probability
Risk Assessment
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Title Dynamic risk stratification using Markov chain modelling in patients with chronic heart failure
URI https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002%2Fehf2.14028
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35736536
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