An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making

• Published in: European journal of operational research Vol. 214; no. 2; pp. 380 - 392
• Main Authors: Durbach, Ian N., Stewart, Theodor J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 16.10.2011; Elsevier; Elsevier Sequoia S.A
• Series: European Journal of Operational Research
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Approximation; Decision analysis; Decision making; Decision making models; Decision support systems; Decision theory. Utility theory; Exact sciences and technology; Format; Multi-criteria analysis; Multi-criteria analysis Decision analysis Decision support systems Uncertainty modelling Psychology; Operational research; Operational research and scientific management; Operational research. Management science; Probability distribution; Psychology; Quantiles; Representations; Standard deviation; Studies; Uncertainty; Uncertainty modelling; Decision support systems; Decision analysis; Multi-criteria analysis; Psychology; Uncertainty modelling; Facilitation; Script; Decision support system; Multicriteria analysis; Decision making; Probability distribution; Modeling; Uncertain system; Overload; Standard deviation; Quantile

► How uncertainty is represented exerts a significant influence on decision making and the alternative that is eventually chosen. ► For the tasks performed in this study, the use of probability distributions appeared to overload subjects, leading to relatively poor choices. ► Subjects seemed to deri...