Graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts

Twelve subjects made judgmental adjustments to graphs of statistical forecasts. The data were artificial ARIMA series with known optimal forecasts. When statistical forecasts were nearly optimal, adjustment had little effect. When the forecasts were less accurate, adjustment improved accuracy. These...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of forecasting Vol. 5; no. 2; pp. 179 - 185
Main Author Willemain, Thomas R.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 1989
North-Holland
Elsevier
Elsevier Sequoia S.A
SeriesInternational Journal of Forecasting
Subjects
Accuracy
ARIMA models
Computer graphics
Computers
Extrapolation
Factors
Forecasting
Graphics
Judgmental forecasting
Judgments
Prognoseverfahren
Statistical analysis
Studies
Theorie
Zeitreihenanalyse
Graphics
Judgmental forecasting
Extrapolation
ARIMA models
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Summary:Twelve subjects made judgmental adjustments to graphs of statistical forecasts. The data were artificial ARIMA series with known optimal forecasts. When statistical forecasts were nearly optimal, adjustment had little effect. When the forecasts were less accurate, adjustment improved accuracy. These results suggest the value of graphical review and adjustment of statistical forecasts.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
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ObjectType-Article-1
ISSN:0169-2070
1872-8200
DOI:10.1016/0169-2070(89)90085-X