Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming
Many subtropical regions are expected to become drier due to climate change. This will lead to reduced vegetation which may in turn amplify the initial drying. Using a coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐land model with a dynamic vegetation component that predicts surface albedo change, here we simulate the cl...
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| Published in | Geophysical research letters Vol. 36; no. 17; pp. np - n/a |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Washington, DC
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.09.2009
American Geophysical Union John Wiley & Sons, Inc |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Many subtropical regions are expected to become drier due to climate change. This will lead to reduced vegetation which may in turn amplify the initial drying. Using a coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐land model with a dynamic vegetation component that predicts surface albedo change, here we simulate the climate change from 1901 to 2099 with CO2 and other forcings. In a standard IPCC‐style simulation, the model simulated an increase in the world's ‘warm desert’ area of 2.5 million km2 or 10% at the end of the 21st century. In a more realistic simulation where the vegetation‐albedo feedback was allowed to interact, the ‘warm desert’ area expands by 8.5 million km2 or 34%. This occurs mostly as an expansion of the world's major subtropical deserts such as the Sahara, the Kalahari, the Gobi, and the Great Sandy Desert. It is suggested that vegetation‐albedo feedback should be fully included in IPCC future climate projections. |
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| AbstractList | Many subtropical regions are expected to become drier due to climate change. This will lead to reduced vegetation which may in turn amplify the initial drying. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model with a dynamic vegetation component that predicts surface albedo change, here we simulate the climate change from 1901 to 2099 with CO sub(2) and other forcings. In a standard IPCC-style simulation, the model simulated an increase in the world's 'warm desert' area of 2.5 million km super(2) or 10% at the end of the 21st century. In a more realistic simulation where the vegetation-albedo feedback was allowed to interact, the 'warm desert' area expands by 8.5 million km super(2) or 34%. This occurs mostly as an expansion of the world's major subtropical deserts such as the Sahara, the Kalahari, the Gobi, and the Great Sandy Desert. It is suggested that vegetation-albedo feedback should be fully included in IPCC future climate projections. Many subtropical regions are expected to become drier due to climate change. This will lead to reduced vegetation which may in turn amplify the initial drying. Using a coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐land model with a dynamic vegetation component that predicts surface albedo change, here we simulate the climate change from 1901 to 2099 with CO 2 and other forcings. In a standard IPCC‐style simulation, the model simulated an increase in the world's ‘warm desert’ area of 2.5 million km 2 or 10% at the end of the 21st century. In a more realistic simulation where the vegetation‐albedo feedback was allowed to interact, the ‘warm desert’ area expands by 8.5 million km 2 or 34%. This occurs mostly as an expansion of the world's major subtropical deserts such as the Sahara, the Kalahari, the Gobi, and the Great Sandy Desert. It is suggested that vegetation‐albedo feedback should be fully included in IPCC future climate projections. Many subtropical regions are expected to become drier due to climate change. This will lead to reduced vegetation which may in turn amplify the initial drying. Using a coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐land model with a dynamic vegetation component that predicts surface albedo change, here we simulate the climate change from 1901 to 2099 with CO2 and other forcings. In a standard IPCC‐style simulation, the model simulated an increase in the world's ‘warm desert’ area of 2.5 million km2 or 10% at the end of the 21st century. In a more realistic simulation where the vegetation‐albedo feedback was allowed to interact, the ‘warm desert’ area expands by 8.5 million km2 or 34%. This occurs mostly as an expansion of the world's major subtropical deserts such as the Sahara, the Kalahari, the Gobi, and the Great Sandy Desert. It is suggested that vegetation‐albedo feedback should be fully included in IPCC future climate projections. |
| Author | Yoon, Jinho Zeng, Ning |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Ning surname: Zeng fullname: Zeng, Ning email: zeng@atmos.umd.edu organization: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Jinho surname: Yoon fullname: Yoon, Jinho organization: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, Maryland, College Park, USA |
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| Copyright | Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union. 2009 INIST-CNRS Copyright 2009 by American Geophysical Union |
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| Keywords | simulation climate warming vegetation climate ocean-atmosphere interaction subtropical zone lead expansion Dynamical climatology Ocean-atmosphere model dynamics deserts global warming Feedback global change standard samples style Forcing projection albedo climate change |
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| SubjectTerms | Albedo Atmospheric sciences Biosphere Carbon dioxide Climate change Computer simulation desertification Deserts Earth Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology Feedback Global warming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Mathematical models Vegetation vegetation feedback |
| Title | Expansion of the world's deserts due to vegetation-albedo feedback under global warming |
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