The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

• Published in: Ecology and evolution Vol. 10; no. 15; pp. 8506 - 8516
• Main Authors: Sherley, Richard B., Crawford, Robert J. M., Blocq, Andrew D., Dyer, Bruce M., Geldenhuys, Deon, Hagen, Christina, Kemper, Jessica, Makhado, Azwianewi B., Pichegru, Lorien, Tom, Desmond, Upfold, Leshia, Visagie, Johan, Waller, Lauren J., Winker, Henning
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.08.2020; John Wiley and Sons Inc; Wiley
• Subjects: Abundance; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian state‐space model; Benguela ecosystem; Colonies; Conservation; Conservation status; Eggs; extinction risk; Fisheries; Growth models; Growth rate; IUCN Red List assessment; Mathematical models; Original Research; Population; Population decline; population dynamics; Population growth; Prey; seabird conservation; Threatened species; South Africa; Namibia; Dassen Island; seabird conservation; Benguela ecosystem; Bayesian state‐space model; IUCN Red List assessment; extinction risk; population dynamics

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979–2019) and Bayesian state‐space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We decon...