Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women’s life expectancy
Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or...
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| Published in | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 113; no. 15; pp. 4015 - 4020 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
United States
National Academy of Sciences
12.04.2016
National Acad Sciences |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects’ relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975–2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915–1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects. |
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| AbstractList | Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects' relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975-2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915-1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects. Life expectancy is the most commonly used measure of health status in a population. Life expectancy has increased rapidly in most western populations over the past two centuries. There has been an ongoing debate about the relative contribution of cohort and period effects on a nation’s life expectancy, but few concrete examples of strong cohort effects exist. In this study, we use demographic approaches to study cohort effects on the life expectancy of Danish women. We identify a clear-cut and strong cohort effect: the case of the interwar generations of Danish women. Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects’ relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975–2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915–1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects. Significance Life expectancy is the most commonly used measure of health status in a population. Life expectancy has increased rapidly in most western populations over the past two centuries. There has been an ongoing debate about the relative contribution of cohort and period effects on a nation’s life expectancy, but few concrete examples of strong cohort effects exist. In this study, we use demographic approaches to study cohort effects on the life expectancy of Danish women. We identify a clear-cut and strong cohort effect: the case of the interwar generations of Danish women. Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects’ relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975–2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915–1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects. |
| Author | Rau, Roland Lenart, Adam Canudas-Romo, Vladimir Jeune, Bernard Christensen, Kaare Vaupel, James W. Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Rune surname: Lindahl-Jacobsen fullname: Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune organization: Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark – sequence: 2 givenname: Roland surname: Rau fullname: Rau, Roland organization: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 18057, Rostock, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Bernard surname: Jeune fullname: Jeune, Bernard organization: Danish Aging Research Center, Unit of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Biodemography, University of Southern Denmark, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark – sequence: 4 givenname: Vladimir surname: Canudas-Romo fullname: Canudas-Romo, Vladimir organization: Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark – sequence: 5 givenname: Adam surname: Lenart fullname: Lenart, Adam organization: Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark – sequence: 6 givenname: Kaare surname: Christensen fullname: Christensen, Kaare organization: Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark – sequence: 7 givenname: James W. surname: Vaupel fullname: Vaupel, James W. organization: Max Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27035998$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Copyright | Volumes 1–89 and 106–113, copyright as a collective work only; author(s) retains copyright to individual articles Copyright National Academy of Sciences Apr 12, 2016 |
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| Keywords | life expectancy interwar Danish women cohort effects decomposition period effects |
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| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Reviewers: M.M., London School of Economics; and S.H.P., University of Pennsylvania. Contributed by James W. Vaupel, February 24, 2016 (sent for review November 4, 2014; reviewed by Michael Murphy and Samuel H. Preston) Author contributions: R.L.-J., R.R., B.J., V.C.-R., A.L., K.C., and J.W.V. designed research; R.L.-J., R.R., K.C., and J.W.V. performed research; R.L.-J., R.R., and J.W.V. analyzed data; and R.L.-J., R.R., and J.W.V. wrote the paper. |
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| Snippet | Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to... Significance Life expectancy is the most commonly used measure of health status in a population. Life expectancy has increased rapidly in most western... Life expectancy is the most commonly used measure of health status in a population. Life expectancy has increased rapidly in most western populations over the... |
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| SubjectTerms | Aged Aged, 80 and over Cause of Death Denmark Female Humans Life expectancy Life Expectancy - trends Longevity Population Dynamics - trends Probability Social Sciences Survival analysis Sweden Women |
| Title | Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women’s life expectancy |
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