A dynamical study of SARS-COV-2: A study of third wave
The coronavirus still an epidemic in most countries of the world and put the people in danger with so many infected cases and death. Considering the third wave of corona virus infection and to determine the peak of the infection curve, we suggest a new mathematical model with reported cases from Mar...
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| Published in | Results in physics Vol. 29; p. 104705 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier B.V
01.10.2021
The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V Elsevier |
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| Abstract | The coronavirus still an epidemic in most countries of the world and put the people in danger with so many infected cases and death. Considering the third wave of corona virus infection and to determine the peak of the infection curve, we suggest a new mathematical model with reported cases from March 06, 2021, till April 30, 2021. The model provides an accurate fitting to the suggested data, and the basic reproduction number calculated to be R0=1.2044. We study the stability of the model and show that the model is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, for the disease free case. The parameters that are sensitive to the basic reproduction number, their effect on the model variables are shown graphically. We can observe that the suggested parameters can decrease efficiently the infection cases of the third wave in Pakistan. Further, our model suggests that the infection peak is to be May 06, 2021. The present results determine that the model can be useful in order to predict other countries data. |
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| AbstractList | The coronavirus still an epidemic in most countries of the world and put the people in danger with so many infected cases and death. Considering the third wave of corona virus infection and to determine the peak of the infection curve, we suggest a new mathematical model with reported cases from March 06, 2021, till April 30, 2021. The model provides an accurate fitting to the suggested data, and the basic reproduction number calculated to be
R
0
=
1
.
2044
. We study the stability of the model and show that the model is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when
R
0
<
1
, for the disease free case. The parameters that are sensitive to the basic reproduction number, their effect on the model variables are shown graphically. We can observe that the suggested parameters can decrease efficiently the infection cases of the third wave in Pakistan. Further, our model suggests that the infection peak is to be May 06, 2021. The present results determine that the model can be useful in order to predict other countries data. The coronavirus still an epidemic in most countries of the world and put the people in danger with so many infected cases and death. Considering the third wave of corona virus infection and to determine the peak of the infection curve, we suggest a new mathematical model with reported cases from March 06, 2021, till April 30, 2021. The model provides an accurate fitting to the suggested data, and the basic reproduction number calculated to be R0=1.2044. We study the stability of the model and show that the model is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, for the disease free case. The parameters that are sensitive to the basic reproduction number, their effect on the model variables are shown graphically. We can observe that the suggested parameters can decrease efficiently the infection cases of the third wave in Pakistan. Further, our model suggests that the infection peak is to be May 06, 2021. The present results determine that the model can be useful in order to predict other countries data. The coronavirus still an epidemic in most countries of the world and put the people in danger with so many infected cases and death. Considering the third wave of corona virus infection and to determine the peak of the infection curve, we suggest a new mathematical model with reported cases from March 06, 2021, till April 30, 2021. The model provides an accurate fitting to the suggested data, and the basic reproduction number calculated to be R 0 = 1 . 2044 . We study the stability of the model and show that the model is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when R 0 < 1 , for the disease free case. The parameters that are sensitive to the basic reproduction number, their effect on the model variables are shown graphically. We can observe that the suggested parameters can decrease efficiently the infection cases of the third wave in Pakistan. Further, our model suggests that the infection peak is to be May 06, 2021. The present results determine that the model can be useful in order to predict other countries data.The coronavirus still an epidemic in most countries of the world and put the people in danger with so many infected cases and death. Considering the third wave of corona virus infection and to determine the peak of the infection curve, we suggest a new mathematical model with reported cases from March 06, 2021, till April 30, 2021. The model provides an accurate fitting to the suggested data, and the basic reproduction number calculated to be R 0 = 1 . 2044 . We study the stability of the model and show that the model is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when R 0 < 1 , for the disease free case. The parameters that are sensitive to the basic reproduction number, their effect on the model variables are shown graphically. We can observe that the suggested parameters can decrease efficiently the infection cases of the third wave in Pakistan. Further, our model suggests that the infection peak is to be May 06, 2021. The present results determine that the model can be useful in order to predict other countries data. |
| ArticleNumber | 104705 |
| Author | Li, Xiao-Ping Alshahrani, Mohammad Y. Khan, Muhammad Altaf Wang, Ye Muhammad, Taseer |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Xiao-Ping surname: Li fullname: Li, Xiao-Ping organization: College of Mathematics and Information Science, Xiangnan University, Chenzhou 423000, P. R. China – sequence: 2 givenname: Ye surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Ye email: 03019@zjhu.edu.cn organization: Department of Mathematics, Huzhou University, Huzhou 313000, P. R. China – sequence: 3 givenname: Muhammad Altaf orcidid: 0000-0002-4483-7879 surname: Khan fullname: Khan, Muhammad Altaf email: altafdir@gmail.com organization: Institute for Ground Water Studies, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, South Africa – sequence: 4 givenname: Mohammad Y. surname: Alshahrani fullname: Alshahrani, Mohammad Y. organization: Department of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences, King Khalid University, P.O. Box 61413, Abha 9088, Saudi Arabia – sequence: 5 givenname: Taseer surname: Muhammad fullname: Muhammad, Taseer organization: Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia |
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| Keywords | SARS-COV2 Numerical simulations Mathematical model Stability results Third wave reported cases |
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| License | This is an open access article under the CC BY license. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
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| Snippet | The coronavirus still an epidemic in most countries of the world and put the people in danger with so many infected cases and death. Considering the third wave... |
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| SubjectTerms | Mathematical model Numerical simulations SARS-COV2 Stability results Third wave reported cases |
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| Title | A dynamical study of SARS-COV-2: A study of third wave |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104705 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2566264066 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC8380310 https://doaj.org/article/9b7d87e7b70b4569b45f7e06f259ec54 |
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