Recent frontiers of climate changes in East Asia at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C

East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms controlling climate and the response of the East Asian climate system at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (GW1.5 and GW2...

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Published inNPJ climate and atmospheric science Vol. 5; no. 1; pp. 1 - 17
Main Authors You, Qinglong, Jiang, Zhihong, Yue, Xu, Guo, Weidong, Liu, Yonggang, Cao, Jian, Li, Wei, Wu, Fangying, Cai, Ziyi, Zhu, Huanhuan, Li, Tim, Liu, Zhengyu, He, Jinhai, Chen, Deliang, Pepin, Nick, Zhai, Panmao
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 20.10.2022
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
704/106/694
706/648/453
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate system
Climatology
Divergence
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
El Nino
Fine structure
Global warming
Monsoons
Review Article
Ultrastructure
Uncertainty
Water vapor
Wetting
Wind
East Asia
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Abstract East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms controlling climate and the response of the East Asian climate system at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (GW1.5 and GW2 hereafter). This study reviews recent studies on East Asian climate change at GW1.5 and GW2. The intensity and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon are expected to increase modestly, accompanied by an enhancement of water vapor transport. Other expected changes include the intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and an intensified and southward shift of the East Asian jet, while the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon is projected to reduce with high uncertainty. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO may increase in a warming world with great uncertainty. Significant warming and wetting occur in East Asia, with more pronounced intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes at GW2 than that at GW1.5. The fine structure of regional climate changes and the presence and location of various warming hotspots, however, show substantial divergence among different model simulations. Furthermore, the Asian climate responses can differ substantially between the transient and stabilized GW1.5 and GW2, which has important implications for emission policies. Thus, to better plan effective mitigation and adaptation activities, further research including an in-depth exploration of the divergent responses in transient versus stabilized scenarios, the quantification of future projection uncertainties, and improvements of the methods to reduce model uncertainties are required.
AbstractList Abstract East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms controlling climate and the response of the East Asian climate system at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (GW1.5 and GW2 hereafter). This study reviews recent studies on East Asian climate change at GW1.5 and GW2. The intensity and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon are expected to increase modestly, accompanied by an enhancement of water vapor transport. Other expected changes include the intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and an intensified and southward shift of the East Asian jet, while the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon is projected to reduce with high uncertainty. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO may increase in a warming world with great uncertainty. Significant warming and wetting occur in East Asia, with more pronounced intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes at GW2 than that at GW1.5. The fine structure of regional climate changes and the presence and location of various warming hotspots, however, show substantial divergence among different model simulations. Furthermore, the Asian climate responses can differ substantially between the transient and stabilized GW1.5 and GW2, which has important implications for emission policies. Thus, to better plan effective mitigation and adaptation activities, further research including an in-depth exploration of the divergent responses in transient versus stabilized scenarios, the quantification of future projection uncertainties, and improvements of the methods to reduce model uncertainties are required.
East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms controlling climate and the response of the East Asian climate system at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (GW1.5 and GW2 hereafter). This study reviews recent studies on East Asian climate change at GW1.5 and GW2. The intensity and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon are expected to increase modestly, accompanied by an enhancement of water vapor transport. Other expected changes include the intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and an intensified and southward shift of the East Asian jet, while the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon is projected to reduce with high uncertainty. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO may increase in a warming world with great uncertainty. Significant warming and wetting occur in East Asia, with more pronounced intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes at GW2 than that at GW1.5. The fine structure of regional climate changes and the presence and location of various warming hotspots, however, show substantial divergence among different model simulations. Furthermore, the Asian climate responses can differ substantially between the transient and stabilized GW1.5 and GW2, which has important implications for emission policies. Thus, to better plan effective mitigation and adaptation activities, further research including an in-depth exploration of the divergent responses in transient versus stabilized scenarios, the quantification of future projection uncertainties, and improvements of the methods to reduce model uncertainties are required.
ArticleNumber 80
Author Zhai, Panmao
Li, Tim
You, Qinglong
Li, Wei
Jiang, Zhihong
Liu, Yonggang
Zhu, Huanhuan
Yue, Xu
Liu, Zhengyu
Cai, Ziyi
Guo, Weidong
Wu, Fangying
He, Jinhai
Chen, Deliang
Cao, Jian
Pepin, Nick
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PublicationDate 2022-10-20
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD 2022-10-20
PublicationDate_xml – month: 10
  year: 2022
  text: 2022-10-20
  day: 20
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PublicationTitle NPJ climate and atmospheric science
PublicationTitleAbbrev npj Clim Atmos Sci
PublicationYear 2022
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Nature Publishing Group
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Snippet East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms...
Abstract East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the...
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706/648/453
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate system
Climatology
Divergence
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
El Nino
Fine structure
Global warming
Monsoons
Review Article
Ultrastructure
Uncertainty
Water vapor
Wetting
Wind
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Title Recent frontiers of climate changes in East Asia at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C
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