The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts

• Published in: Journal of peace research Vol. 47; no. 4; pp. 363 - 375
• Main Authors: Ward, Michael D, Greenhill, Brian D, Bakke, Kristin M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London, England Sage Publications 01.07.2010; SAGE Publications; Sage Publications Ltd
• Subjects: Accounting; Attention; Civil War; Civil wars; Commodities; Comparative analysis; Conflict; Conflict theory; Cross-validation; Democracy; Ethnic conflict; False positive errors; Forecasts; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Heuristic; Heuristics; Model testing; Modeling; Per capita output; Population dynamics; Power; Prediction; Prediction models; Predictive modeling; Predictive power; Prescription drugs; Significance tests; Statistical models; Statistical Significance; Variables; prediction; civil conflicts; cross-validation; statistical models

Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number of statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms of anticipating the onset of conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding statistically significant relationships, while too little atte...