Development and validation of prediction models for blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs using dietary intakes
Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable. To develop and then validate models for predicting c...
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Published in | Environment international Vol. 50; pp. 15 - 21 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Oxford
Elsevier Ltd
01.12.2012
Elsevier |
Subjects | |
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Abstract | Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable.
To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations.
Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB4). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (КW) as measures of agreement, considering КW>0.40 as successful prediction.
The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB4) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates.
The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB4, (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. КW was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB4 and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had КW>0.40.
The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis.
[Display omitted]
► We model the blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs on congener level. ► We use the models to predict the blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in an independent study population. ► We compared the predicted and the measured blood concentrations. ► The participants were to a great extent successfully placed in the right exposure category. |
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AbstractList | Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable.
To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations.
Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB(4)). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (К(W)) as measures of agreement, considering К(W)>0.40 as successful prediction.
The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB(4)) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB(4), (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. К(W) was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB(4) and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had К(W)>0.40.
The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis. Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable.BACKGROUNDDioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable.To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations.OBJECTIVESTo develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations.Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB(4)). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (К(W)) as measures of agreement, considering К(W)>0.40 as successful prediction.METHODSPrediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB(4)). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (К(W)) as measures of agreement, considering К(W)>0.40 as successful prediction.The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB(4)) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB(4), (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. К(W) was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB(4) and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had К(W)>0.40.RESULTSThe models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB(4)) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB(4), (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. К(W) was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB(4) and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had К(W)>0.40.The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis.CONCLUSIONSThe models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis. Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable. To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations. Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB4). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (КW) as measures of agreement, considering КW>0.40 as successful prediction. The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB4) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB4, (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. КW was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB4 and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had КW>0.40. The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis. [Display omitted] ► We model the blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs on congener level. ► We use the models to predict the blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in an independent study population. ► We compared the predicted and the measured blood concentrations. ► The participants were to a great extent successfully placed in the right exposure category. BACKGROUND: Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable. OBJECTIVES: To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations. METHODS: Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB₄). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (КW) as measures of agreement, considering КW>0.40 as successful prediction. RESULTS: The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB₄) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB₄, (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. КW was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB₄ and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had КW>0.40. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis. |
Author | Stigum, Hein Meltzer, Helle Margrete Haugen, Margaretha Alexander, Jan Kvalem, Helen Engelstad Brantsæter, Anne Lise Knutsen, Helle K. Thomsen, Cathrine |
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Keywords | ndl-PCBs PCB4 Validation PCBs TEQ PCB6 Blood concentrations 2,3,7,8-TCDD no-PCB Prediction PCDD/Fs NFG PCB Dietary exposure dl-PCBs bw mo-PCB Dioxin dl-compounds Human Dioxin derivatives Polychlorobiphenyls Exposure Forecast model Blood Feeding Persistent organic pollutant Halogenated hydrocarbon Chlorocarbon Aromatic compound Predictive factor Public health Organic compounds |
Language | English |
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Snippet | Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these... BACKGROUND: Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure... |
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SubjectTerms | Adult Aged Aged, 80 and over Animals Benzofurans - blood Biological and medical sciences blood Blood concentrations chemical analysis correlation Diet - statistics & numerical data Dietary exposure Dioxin Dioxins - blood education energy intake Environment. Living conditions Environmental Exposure - analysis Environmental Exposure - statistics & numerical data Environmental pollutants toxicology epidemiological studies Female food chain Food Contamination - analysis Food Contamination - statistics & numerical data food frequency questionnaires food intake furans Humans linear models Male Medical sciences Middle Aged nutritive value PCB polychlorinated biphenyls Polychlorinated Biphenyls - blood polychlorinated dibenzodioxins Polychlorinated Dibenzodioxins - analogs & derivatives Polychlorinated Dibenzodioxins - blood polychlorinated dibenzofurans Prediction Public health. Hygiene Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine toxicity Toxicology Validation variance Young Adult |
Title | Development and validation of prediction models for blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs using dietary intakes |
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