Development and validation of prediction models for blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs using dietary intakes

Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable. To develop and then validate models for predicting c...

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Published inEnvironment international Vol. 50; pp. 15 - 21
Main Authors Kvalem, Helen Engelstad, Brantsæter, Anne Lise, Meltzer, Helle Margrete, Stigum, Hein, Thomsen, Cathrine, Haugen, Margaretha, Alexander, Jan, Knutsen, Helle K.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2012
Elsevier
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Abstract Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable. To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations. Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB4). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (КW) as measures of agreement, considering КW>0.40 as successful prediction. The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB4) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB4, (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. КW was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB4 and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had КW>0.40. The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis. [Display omitted] ► We model the blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs on congener level. ► We use the models to predict the blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in an independent study population. ► We compared the predicted and the measured blood concentrations. ► The participants were to a great extent successfully placed in the right exposure category.
AbstractList Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable. To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations. Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB(4)). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (К(W)) as measures of agreement, considering К(W)>0.40 as successful prediction. The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB(4)) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB(4), (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. К(W) was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB(4) and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had К(W)>0.40. The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis.
Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable.BACKGROUNDDioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable.To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations.OBJECTIVESTo develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations.Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB(4)). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (К(W)) as measures of agreement, considering К(W)>0.40 as successful prediction.METHODSPrediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB(4)). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (К(W)) as measures of agreement, considering К(W)>0.40 as successful prediction.The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB(4)) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB(4), (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. К(W) was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB(4) and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had К(W)>0.40.RESULTSThe models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB(4)) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB(4), (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. К(W) was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB(4) and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had К(W)>0.40.The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis.CONCLUSIONSThe models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis.
Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable. To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations. Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB4). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (КW) as measures of agreement, considering КW>0.40 as successful prediction. The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB4) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB4, (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. КW was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB4 and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had КW>0.40. The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis. [Display omitted] ► We model the blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs on congener level. ► We use the models to predict the blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in an independent study population. ► We compared the predicted and the measured blood concentrations. ► The participants were to a great extent successfully placed in the right exposure category.
BACKGROUND: Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these compounds based on analyses of biological material might not be available or affordable. OBJECTIVES: To develop and then validate models for predicting concentrations of dioxins and PCBs in blood using a comprehensive food frequency questionnaire and blood concentrations. METHODS: Prediction models were built on data from one study (n=195), and validated in an independent study group (n=66). We used linear regression to develop predictive models for dioxins and PCBs, both sums of congeners and 33 single congeners (7 and 10 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDDs/PCDFs), 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs: 4 non-ortho and 8 mono-ortho), sum of all the 29 dioxin-like compounds (total TEQ) and sum of 4 non dioxin-like PCBs (∑ CB-101, 138, 153, 183=PCB₄). We used the blood concentration and dietary intake of each of the above as dependent and independent variables, while sex, parity, age, place of living, smoking status, energy intake and education were covariates. We validated the models in a new study population comparing the predicted blood concentrations with the measured blood concentrations using correlation coefficients and Weighted Kappa (КW) as measures of agreement, considering КW>0.40 as successful prediction. RESULTS: The models explained 78% (sum dioxin-like compounds), 76% (PCDDs), 76% (PCDFs), 74% (no-PCBs), 69% (mo-PCBs), 68% (PCB₄) and 63% (CB-153) of the variance. In addition to dietary intake, age and sex were the most important covariates. The predicted blood concentrations were highly correlated with the measured values, with r=0.75 for dl-compounds 0.70 for PCB₄, (p<0.001) and 0.66 (p<0.001) for CB-153. КW was 0.68 for sum dl-compounds 0.65 for both PCB₄ and CB-153. Out of 33 congeners 16 (13dl-compounds and 3 ndl PCBs) had КW>0.40. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed had high power to predict blood levels of dioxins and PCBs and to correctly rank subjects according to high or low exposure based on dietary intake and demographic information. These models underline the value of dietary intake data for use in investigations of associations between dioxin and PCB exposure and health outcomes in large epidemiological studies with limited biomaterial for chemical analysis.
Author Stigum, Hein
Meltzer, Helle Margrete
Haugen, Margaretha
Alexander, Jan
Kvalem, Helen Engelstad
Brantsæter, Anne Lise
Knutsen, Helle K.
Thomsen, Cathrine
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  organization: Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
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  surname: Knutsen
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  organization: Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
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Keywords ndl-PCBs
PCB4
Validation
PCBs
TEQ
PCB6
Blood concentrations
2,3,7,8-TCDD
no-PCB
Prediction
PCDD/Fs
NFG
PCB
Dietary exposure
dl-PCBs
bw
mo-PCB
Dioxin
dl-compounds
Human
Dioxin derivatives
Polychlorobiphenyls
Exposure
Forecast model
Blood
Feeding
Persistent organic pollutant
Halogenated hydrocarbon
Chlorocarbon
Aromatic compound
Predictive factor
Public health
Organic compounds
Language English
License https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0
CC BY 4.0
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Snippet Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure estimates of these...
BACKGROUND: Dioxins and PCBs accumulate in the food chain and might exert toxic effects in animals and humans. In large epidemiologic studies, exposure...
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StartPage 15
SubjectTerms Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Animals
Benzofurans - blood
Biological and medical sciences
blood
Blood concentrations
chemical analysis
correlation
Diet - statistics & numerical data
Dietary exposure
Dioxin
Dioxins - blood
education
energy intake
Environment. Living conditions
Environmental Exposure - analysis
Environmental Exposure - statistics & numerical data
Environmental pollutants toxicology
epidemiological studies
Female
food chain
Food Contamination - analysis
Food Contamination - statistics & numerical data
food frequency questionnaires
food intake
furans
Humans
linear models
Male
Medical sciences
Middle Aged
nutritive value
PCB
polychlorinated biphenyls
Polychlorinated Biphenyls - blood
polychlorinated dibenzodioxins
Polychlorinated Dibenzodioxins - analogs & derivatives
Polychlorinated Dibenzodioxins - blood
polychlorinated dibenzofurans
Prediction
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
toxicity
Toxicology
Validation
variance
Young Adult
Title Development and validation of prediction models for blood concentrations of dioxins and PCBs using dietary intakes
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2012.09.003
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23032644
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1139618955
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1705430747
Volume 50
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