Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2 °C target
More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identi...
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| Published in | Global change biology Vol. 22; no. 12; pp. 3859 - 3864 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
England
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.12.2016
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre‐industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture‐related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit. |
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| AbstractList | More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2 e yr-1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21-40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit.More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2 e yr-1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21-40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit. More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit. More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre‐industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture‐related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit. More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 Gt CO 2 e yr −1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre‐industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture‐related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit. More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO e yr by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21-40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit. More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO₂e yr⁻¹ by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre‐industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture‐related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit. More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr-1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21-40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit. |
| Author | Carter, Sarah Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria West, Paul C. Dickie, Amy Amonette, James E. Campbell, Bruce M. Westhoek, Henk Wollenberg, Eva Gerber, Pierre Vermeulen, Sonja Sommer, Rolf Sadler, Marc Smith, Pete Neufeldt, Henry Herrero, Mario Herold, Martin Soussana, Jean-François Opio, Carolyn Sapkota, Tek Verchot, Louis Stehfest, Elke Falcucci, Alessandra Wassmann, Reiner Reisinger, Andrew Richards, Meryl Havlík, Petr Rufino, Mariana C. Thornton, Philip K. Baedeker, Tobias Tubiello, Francesco N. Obersteiner, Michael Ortiz-Monasterio, Ivan Sander, Björn O. van Vuuren, Detlef P. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Eva surname: Wollenberg fullname: Wollenberg, Eva email: lini.wollenberg@uvm.edu, lini.wollenberg@uvm.edu organization: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark – sequence: 2 givenname: Meryl surname: Richards fullname: Richards, Meryl organization: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark – sequence: 3 givenname: Pete surname: Smith fullname: Smith, Pete organization: Scottish Food Security Alliance-Crops, Aberdeen, UK – sequence: 4 givenname: Petr surname: Havlík fullname: Havlík, Petr organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria – sequence: 5 givenname: Michael surname: Obersteiner fullname: Obersteiner, Michael organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria – sequence: 6 givenname: Francesco N. surname: Tubiello fullname: Tubiello, Francesco N. organization: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy – sequence: 7 givenname: Martin surname: Herold fullname: Herold, Martin organization: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, The Netherlands – sequence: 8 givenname: Pierre surname: Gerber fullname: Gerber, Pierre organization: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy – sequence: 9 givenname: Sarah surname: Carter fullname: Carter, Sarah organization: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, The Netherlands – sequence: 10 givenname: Andrew surname: Reisinger fullname: Reisinger, Andrew organization: New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre (NZAGRC), Wellington, New Zealand – sequence: 11 givenname: Detlef P. surname: van Vuuren fullname: van Vuuren, Detlef P. organization: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands – sequence: 12 givenname: Amy surname: Dickie fullname: Dickie, Amy organization: California Environmental Associates (CEA), CA, San Francisco, USA – sequence: 13 givenname: Henry surname: Neufeldt fullname: Neufeldt, Henry organization: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya – sequence: 14 givenname: Björn O. surname: Sander fullname: Sander, Björn O. organization: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines – sequence: 15 givenname: Reiner surname: Wassmann fullname: Wassmann, Reiner organization: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines – sequence: 16 givenname: Rolf surname: Sommer fullname: Sommer, Rolf organization: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia – sequence: 17 givenname: James E. surname: Amonette fullname: Amonette, James E. organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), WA, Richland, USA – sequence: 18 givenname: Alessandra surname: Falcucci fullname: Falcucci, Alessandra organization: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy – sequence: 19 givenname: Mario surname: Herrero fullname: Herrero, Mario organization: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Qld, Brisbane, Australia – sequence: 20 givenname: Carolyn surname: Opio fullname: Opio, Carolyn organization: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy – sequence: 21 givenname: Rosa Maria surname: Roman-Cuesta fullname: Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria organization: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, The Netherlands – sequence: 22 givenname: Elke surname: Stehfest fullname: Stehfest, Elke organization: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands – sequence: 23 givenname: Henk surname: Westhoek fullname: Westhoek, Henk organization: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands – sequence: 24 givenname: Ivan surname: Ortiz-Monasterio fullname: Ortiz-Monasterio, Ivan organization: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batán, Mexico – sequence: 25 givenname: Tek surname: Sapkota fullname: Sapkota, Tek organization: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batán, Mexico – sequence: 26 givenname: Mariana C. surname: Rufino fullname: Rufino, Mariana C. organization: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Nairobi, Kenya – sequence: 27 givenname: Philip K. surname: Thornton fullname: Thornton, Philip K. organization: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark – sequence: 28 givenname: Louis surname: Verchot fullname: Verchot, Louis organization: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Nairobi, Kenya – sequence: 29 givenname: Paul C. surname: West fullname: West, Paul C. organization: Institute on the Environment (IONE), University of Minnesota, MN, Saint Paul, USA – sequence: 30 givenname: Jean-François surname: Soussana fullname: Soussana, Jean-François organization: French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), Clermont-Ferrand, France – sequence: 31 givenname: Tobias surname: Baedeker fullname: Baedeker, Tobias organization: World Bank (WB), DC, Washington, USA – sequence: 32 givenname: Marc surname: Sadler fullname: Sadler, Marc organization: World Bank (WB), DC, Washington, USA – sequence: 33 givenname: Sonja surname: Vermeulen fullname: Vermeulen, Sonja organization: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark – sequence: 34 givenname: Bruce M. surname: Campbell fullname: Campbell, Bruce M. organization: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27185416$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | agriculture mitigation United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change integrated assessment modeling climate change policy target |
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| Notes | Appendix S1. Overview of methods, including Tables S1-S4. Appendix S2. Data sources and methods, including Figure S1 and Tables S5-S10. Appendix S3. 2030 reference levels. Appendix S4. References. ArticleID:GCB13340 European Union (EU) ark:/67375/WNG-0SP7F6Z8-7 istex:057FFBFFAE95CC715D012E580FCCBF67D168F13F ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 |
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Stehfest E, Berg MVD, Woltjer G, Msangi S, Westhoek H (2013) Options to reduce the environmental effects of livestock production - comparison of two economic models. Agricultural Systems, 114, 38-53. 2015; 12 2008; 38 2015; 33 2013; 20 2011; 62 2014; 111 2007; 10 2013; 8 2004; 305 2008; 363 2012; 10 2013; 19 2016; 6 2011; 109 2014; 5 2014; 4 2006; 27 2015; 233 2015; 112 2013; 117 2016; 530 2014; 14 2013; 114 2016 2015 2014 2013 2016; 532 2014; 124 e_1_2_9_30_1 e_1_2_9_31_1 Gerber PJ (e_1_2_9_9_1) 2013 e_1_2_9_11_1 e_1_2_9_10_1 Smith P (e_1_2_9_27_1) 2014 e_1_2_9_32_1 Wise M (e_1_2_9_33_1) 2014; 5 e_1_2_9_12_1 Cafaro P (e_1_2_9_4_1) 2013 DeAngelo BJ (e_1_2_9_7_1) 2006; 27 e_1_2_9_15_1 e_1_2_9_14_1 e_1_2_9_17_1 e_1_2_9_16_1 e_1_2_9_19_1 e_1_2_9_18_1 Richards M (e_1_2_9_24_1) 2016 e_1_2_9_20_1 e_1_2_9_22_1 e_1_2_9_21_1 e_1_2_9_8_1 e_1_2_9_6_1 e_1_2_9_5_1 Herd RM (e_1_2_9_13_1) 2013; 20 e_1_2_9_3_1 e_1_2_9_2_1 Richards MB (e_1_2_9_23_1) 2015 e_1_2_9_26_1 e_1_2_9_25_1 e_1_2_9_28_1 e_1_2_9_29_1 |
| References_xml | – reference: Höhne N, den Elzen M, Escalante D (2014) Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14, 122-147. – reference: Paustian K, Lehmann J, Ogle S, Reay D, Robertson GP, Smith P (2016) Climate-smart soils. Nature, 532, 49-57. – reference: Richards M, Bruun T, Campbell BM et al. (2016) How Countries Plan to Address Agricultural Adaptation and Mitigation: An Analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions CCAFS dataset version 1.1. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen. – reference: Hristov AN, Oh J, Giallongo F et al. (2015) An inhibitor persistently decreased enteric methane emission from dairy cows with no negative effect on milk production. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, 10663-10668. – reference: Herd RM, Bird SH, Donoghue KA, Arthur PF, Hegarty RF (2013) Phenotypic associations between methane production traits, volatile fatty acids and animal breeding traits. Proceedings of the Association for the Advancement of Animal Breeding and Genetics, 20, 286-289. – reference: van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MGJ et al. (2011) RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 degrees C. Climatic Change, 109, 95-116. – reference: Williamson P (2016) Scrutinizing CO2 removal methods. Nature, 530, 153-155. – reference: Wise M, Calvin K, Kyle P, Luckow P, Edmonds J (2014) Economic and physical modeling of land use in GCAM 3.0 and an application to agricultural productivity, land, and terrestrial carbon. Climatic Change Economics, 5, 145003. – reference: Del Grosso SJ, Cavigelli MJ (2012) Climate stabilization wedges revisited: can agricultural production and greenhouse gas reduction goals be accomplished? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 10, 571-578. – reference: Herrero M, Henderson B, Havlík P et al. (2016) Greenhouse gas mitigation potentials in the livestock sector. Nature Climate Change, 6, 452-461. – reference: Hedenus F, Wirsenius S, Johansson DJA (2014) The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets. Climatic Change, 124, 79-91. – reference: Smith P, Haberl H, Popp A et al. (2013) How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals? Global Change Biology, 19, 2285-2302. – reference: Gernaat DEHJ, Calvin K, Lucas PL et al. (2015) Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 33, 142-153. – reference: Cotrufo MF, Wallenstein M, Boot CM, Denef K, Paul EA (2013) The Microbial Efficiency-Matrix Stabilization (MEMS) framework integrates plant litter decomposition with soil organic matter stabilization: do labile plant inputs form stable soil organic matter? Global Change Biology, 19, 988-995. – reference: Bajželj B, Richards KS, Allwood JM, Smith P, Dennis JS, Curmi E, Gilligan CA (2014) Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation. Nature Climate Change, 4, 924-929. – reference: Powlson DS, Whitmore AP, Goulding KWT (2011) Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change: a critical re-examination to identify the true and the false. European Journal of Soil Science, 62, 42-55. – reference: Gerber PJ, Steinfeld H, Henderson B et al. (2013) Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock - A Global Assessment of Emissions and Mitigation Opportunities. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome. – reference: Carter S, Herold M, Rufino MC, Neumann K, Kooistra L, Verchot L (2015) Mitigation of agriculture emissions in the tropics: comparing forest land-sparing options at the national level. Biogeosciences Discussions, 12, 5435-5475. – reference: Stehfest E, Berg MVD, Woltjer G, Msangi S, Westhoek H (2013) Options to reduce the environmental effects of livestock production - comparison of two economic models. Agricultural Systems, 114, 38-53. – reference: Smith P, Martino D, Cai Z et al. (2008) Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 363, 789-813. – reference: Havlík P, Valin H, Herrero M et al. (2014) Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 3709-3714. – reference: Subbarao GV, Yoshihashi T, Worthington M et al. 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| Title | Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2 °C target |
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