How valid are assessments of conception probability in ovulatory cycle research? Evaluations, recommendations, and theoretical implications
Over the past two decades, a large literature examining psychological changes across women's ovulatory cycles has accumulated, emphasizing comparisons between fertile and non-fertile phases of the cycle. While some studies have verified ovulation using luteinizing hormone (LH) tests, counting m...
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| Published in | Evolution and human behavior Vol. 37; no. 2; pp. 85 - 96 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier Inc
01.03.2016
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1090-5138 1879-0607 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2015.09.001 |
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| Abstract | Over the past two decades, a large literature examining psychological changes across women's ovulatory cycles has accumulated, emphasizing comparisons between fertile and non-fertile phases of the cycle. While some studies have verified ovulation using luteinizing hormone (LH) tests, counting methods – assessments of conception probability based on counting forward from actual or retrospectively recalled onset of last menses, or backward from actual or anticipated onset of next menses – are more common. The validity of these methods remains largely unexplored. Based on published data on the distributions of the lengths of follicular and luteal phases, we created a sample of 58,000+ simulated cycles. We used the sample to assess the validity of counting methods. Aside from methods that count backward from a confirmed onset of next menses, validities are modest, generally ranging from about .40–.55. We offer power estimates and make recommendations for future work. We also discuss implications for interpreting past research. |
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| AbstractList | Over the past two decades, a large literature examining psychological changes across women's ovulatory cycles has accumulated, emphasizing comparisons between fertile and non-fertile phases of the cycle. While some studies have verified ovulation using luteinizing hormone (LH) tests, counting methods – assessments of conception probability based on counting forward from actual or retrospectively recalled onset of last menses, or backward from actual or anticipated onset of next menses – are more common. The validity of these methods remains largely unexplored. Based on published data on the distributions of the lengths of follicular and luteal phases, we created a sample of 58,000+ simulated cycles. We used the sample to assess the validity of counting methods. Aside from methods that count backward from a confirmed onset of next menses, validities are modest, generally ranging from about .40–.55. We offer power estimates and make recommendations for future work. We also discuss implications for interpreting past research. Abstract Over the past two decades, a large literature examining psychological changes across women's ovulatory cycles has accumulated, emphasizing comparisons between fertile and non-fertile phases of the cycle. While some studies have verified ovulation using luteinizing hormone (LH) tests, counting methods – assessments of conception probability based on counting forward from actual or retrospectively recalled onset of last menses, or backward from actual or anticipated onset of next menses – are more common. The validity of these methods remains largely unexplored. Based on published data on the distributions of the lengths of follicular and luteal phases, we created a sample of 58,000 + simulated cycles. We used the sample to assess the validity of counting methods. Aside from methods that count backward from a confirmed onset of next menses, validities are modest, generally ranging from about .40–.55. We offer power estimates and make recommendations for future work. We also discuss implications for interpreting past research. |
| Author | Welling, Lisa L.M. Gangestad, Steven W. Puts, David A. Pillsworth, Elizabeth G. Haselton, Martie G. Gildersleeve, Kelly Burriss, Robert P. Larson, Christina M. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Steven W. surname: Gangestad fullname: Gangestad, Steven W. email: sgangest@unm.edu organization: Department of Psychology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Martie G. surname: Haselton fullname: Haselton, Martie G. organization: Department of Communication Studies, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Lisa L.M. surname: Welling fullname: Welling, Lisa L.M. organization: Department of Psychology, Oakland University, Oakland, MI, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Kelly surname: Gildersleeve fullname: Gildersleeve, Kelly organization: Department of Communication Studies, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA – sequence: 5 givenname: Elizabeth G. surname: Pillsworth fullname: Pillsworth, Elizabeth G. organization: Department of Anthropology, California State University, Fullerton, CA, USA – sequence: 6 givenname: Robert P. surname: Burriss fullname: Burriss, Robert P. organization: Psychology Department, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK – sequence: 7 givenname: Christina M. surname: Larson fullname: Larson, Christina M. organization: Department of Communication Studies, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA – sequence: 8 givenname: David A. surname: Puts fullname: Puts, David A. organization: Department of Anthropology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA |
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| Keywords | Evolutionary psychology Fertile phase Ovarian cycle Menstrual cycle Fertility |
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ovulatory cycle: Function and phylogeny |
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| SubjectTerms | Evolutionary psychology Fertile phase Fertility Menstrual cycle Ovarian cycle Psychiatry |
| Title | How valid are assessments of conception probability in ovulatory cycle research? Evaluations, recommendations, and theoretical implications |
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