Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation
Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and...
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| Published in | Royal Society open science Vol. 9; no. 3; p. 211596 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
England
The Royal Society
01.03.2022
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in
Aotearoa
New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96–100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change. |
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| AbstractList | Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96–100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change. Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96–100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change. Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96-100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change. Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96-100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change.Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96-100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change. |
| Author | Trewick, Steven A. Koot, Emily M. Morgan-Richards, Mary |
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| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35316945$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | FRAGSTATS ecological niche modelling biomod2 alpine fragmentation climate change ensemble modelling |
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| SubjectTerms | alpine biomod2 climate change ecological niche modelling Ecology, Conservation and Global Change Biology ensemble modelling fragmentation |
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| Title | Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation |
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