Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions

• Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 100; no. 470; pp. 680 - 701
• Main Authors: Garthwaite, Paul H, Kadane, Joseph B, O'Hagan, Anthony
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Alexandria, VA Taylor & Francis 01.06.2005; American Statistical Association; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Assessed values; Bayesian; Bayesian analysis; Calibration; Conservatism; Distribution theory; Exact sciences and technology; Group decision; Group facilitation; Heuristic; Heuristics; Heuristics and biases; Mathematics; Nonparametric inference; Parametric inference; Prior distribution; Probabilities; Probability; Probability and statistics; Probability distributions; Probability theory and stochastic processes; Proportions; Psychology; Review Article; Sciences and techniques of general use; Statistical discrepancies; Statistical methods; Statistics; Subjective probability; Bayes estimation; Hyper parameter; Statistical distribution; Prior distribution; Heuristics and biases; Bayesian; Non parametric estimation; Probability distribution; Mean estimation; Delphi method; Subjective probability; Parameter space; Statistical method; Group decision; MCMC algorithm; Indirect method; Hierarchical model; Posterior distribution; Biased estimation
• ISSN: 0162-1459; 1537-274X
• DOI: 10.1198/016214505000000105

Elicitation is a key task for subjectivist Bayesians. Although skeptics hold that elicitation cannot (or perhaps should not) be done, in practice it brings statisticians closer to their clients and subject-matter expert colleagues. This article reviews the state of the art, reflecting the experience...