THE VARIOUS DIMENSIONS OF COMMODITY DEPENDENCE IN AFRICA
This paper considers whether or not the poor performance of many African countries can be ascribed to a dependency on primary commodity exports. This is a multidimensional question which concerns the Prebisch‐Singer Hypothesis, commodity price volatility, the dependence of GDP on exports and the com...
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| Published in | The South African Journal of economics Vol. 73; no. 2; pp. 269 - 291 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Oxford, UK
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.06.2005
Economic Society of South Africa Wiley Subscription Services, Inc |
| Series | South African Journal of Economics |
| Subjects | |
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| Abstract | This paper considers whether or not the poor performance of many African countries can be ascribed to a dependency on primary commodity exports. This is a multidimensional question which concerns the Prebisch‐Singer Hypothesis, commodity price volatility, the dependence of GDP on exports and the commodity price elasticity of exchange rates (the so‐called Dutch disease problem). To consider these questions, the paper uses data on 39 commodities and ten African countries. It finds that relative to the price of manufactured goods there is a downward secular trend in less than half of the commodity prices considered. Nonetheless, most commodity prices are highly volatile. Furthermore, in the case of half of the countries considered GDP is dependent on exports. However, the paper finds limited evidence for Dutch disease. |
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| AbstractList | This paper considers whether or not the poor performance of many African countries can be ascribed to a dependency on primary commodity exports. This is a multidimensional question which concerns the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis, commodity price volatility, the dependence of GDP on exports and the commodity price elasticity of exchange rates (the so-called Dutch disease problem). To consider these questions, the paper uses data on 39 commodities and ten African countries. It finds that relative to the price of manufactured goods there is a downward secular trend in less than half of the commodity prices considered. Nonetheless, most commodity prices are highly volatile. Furthermore, in the case of half of the countries considered GDP is dependent on exports. However, the paper finds limited evidence for Dutch disease. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] This paper considers whether or not the poor performance of many African countries can be ascribed to a dependency on primary commodity exports. This is a multidimensional question which concerns the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis, commodity price volatility, the dependence of GDP on exports and the commodity price elasticity of exchange rates (the so-called Dutch disease problem). To consider these questions, the paper uses data on 39 commodities and ten African countries. It finds that relative to the price of manufactured goods there is a downward secular trend in less than half of the commodity prices considered. theless, most commodity prices are highly volatile. Furthermore, in the case of half of the countries considered GDP is dependent on exports. However, the paper finds limited evidence for Dutch disease. Copyright 2005 Economic Society of South Africa. This paper considers whether or not the poor performance of many African countries can be ascribed to a dependency on primary commodity exports. This is a multidimensional question which concerns the Prebisch‐Singer Hypothesis, commodity price volatility, the dependence of GDP on exports and the commodity price elasticity of exchange rates (the so‐called Dutch disease problem). To consider these questions, the paper uses data on 39 commodities and ten African countries. It finds that relative to the price of manufactured goods there is a downward secular trend in less than half of the commodity prices considered. Nonetheless, most commodity prices are highly volatile. Furthermore, in the case of half of the countries considered GDP is dependent on exports. However, the paper finds limited evidence for Dutch disease. |
| Author | BURGER, PHILIPPE MARINKOV, MARINA |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: MARINA surname: MARINKOV fullname: MARINKOV, MARINA organization: Respectively lecturer and associate professor, Department of Economics, University of the Free State, South Africa. The authors thank an anonymous referee for his/her valuable comments – sequence: 2 givenname: PHILIPPE surname: BURGER fullname: BURGER, PHILIPPE organization: Respectively lecturer and associate professor, Department of Economics, University of the Free State, South Africa. The authors thank an anonymous referee for his/her valuable comments |
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| References_xml | – start-page: 1 year: 2004 end-page: 30 article-title: Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate publication-title: Journal of Development Economics – volume: Volume 33 start-page: 210 issue: 2 year: 1996 end-page: 229 article-title: Learning Sequences and Structural Diversification m Developing Countries publication-title: The Journal of Development Studies – volume: Volume 55 start-page: 703 year: 1987 end-page: 708 article-title: A Simple, Positive Semi‐Definite, Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix publication-title: Econometrica – volume: Volume 57 start-page: 1361 issue: 6 year: 1989 end-page: 1401 article-title: The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis publication-title: Econometrica – volume: Volume 41 start-page: 175 issue: 2 year: 1994 end-page: 213 article-title: Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline publication-title: IMF Staff Papers – volume: Volume 25 start-page: 1863 issue: 11 year: 1997 end-page: 1871 article-title: Composite Commodities and the Prebisch‐Singer Thesis publication-title: World Development – volume: Volume 5 start-page: 315 year: 1999 end-page: 330 article-title: Identifying Trends and Breaks in Primary Commodity Prices publication-title: The European Journal of Finance – year: 2002 – volume: Volume 28 start-page: 653 year: 1996 end-page: 661 article-title: Drift in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities: a Case where we Care about Unit Roots publication-title: Applied Economics – year: 2004 – year: 2003 – volume: Volume 24 start-page: 539 year: 2003 end-page: 551 article-title: Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices publication-title: Journal of Time Series Analysis – volume: Volume 60 start-page: 133 year: 2003 end-page: 160 article-title: Commodity Currencies publication-title: Journal of International Economics – volume: Volume 33 start-page: 531 year: 2001 end-page: 538 article-title: Long‐run Prices of Primary Commodities and Oil Prices publication-title: Applied Economics – volume: Volume 36 start-page: 241 issue: 2 year: 2004 end-page: 253 article-title: Trends m Developing Countries' Commodity Terms‐of‐Trade since 1970 publication-title: Review of Radical Political Economics – year: 2004c – volume: Volume 7 start-page: 1 issue: 1 year: 1950 end-page: 22 article-title: The Economic Development of Latin America and its Principal Problems publication-title: Economic Bulletin for Latin America – volume: Volume 40 start-page: 473 year: 1950 end-page: 485 article-title: US Foreign Investment in Underdeveloped Areas: The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries publication-title: American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings – volume: Volume 2 start-page: 1 year: 1988 end-page: 47 article-title: Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms‐of‐ Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows publication-title: The World Bank Economic Review – volume: Volume 24 start-page: 461 year: 2000 end-page: 481 article-title: Whither the Terms of Trade? 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| SubjectTerms | Africa Commodities Developing countries Economic conditions Economic development Economic performance Empirical research Exports Foreign exchange rates Foreign trade GDP Gross Domestic Product International economic relations Manycountries Prices Studies Trade policy Volatility |
| Title | THE VARIOUS DIMENSIONS OF COMMODITY DEPENDENCE IN AFRICA |
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