Global patterns of interannual climate–fire relationships

Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with land‐use and anthropogenic factors. Yet, the degree to which climate variability affects interannual variability in burned area across Earth...

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Published in	Global change biology Vol. 24; no. 11; pp. 5164 - 5175
Main Authors	Abatzoglou, John T., Williams, A. Park, Boschetti, Luigi, Zubkova, Maria, Kolden, Crystal A.
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.11.2018
Subjects	Annual variations Anthropogenic factors Area Aridity Balances (scales) Climate Climate change Climate variability Climatology Composition Desiccation Drying Earth ecoregions fire Fires Forests global Human factors Human influences Humans Interactions modeling Modelling Models, Theoretical Rainfall Regions Satellites Seasons Variability Vegetation ecoregions fire global modeling climate
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Abstract	Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with land‐use and anthropogenic factors. Yet, the degree to which climate variability affects interannual variability in burned area across Earth is less understood. Two decades of satellite‐derived burned area records across forested and nonforested areas were used to examine global interannual climate–fire relationships at ecoregion scales. Measures of fuel aridity exhibited strong positive correlations with forested burned area, with weaker relationships in climatologically drier regions. By contrast, cumulative precipitation antecedent to the fire season exhibited positive correlations to nonforested burned area, with stronger relationships in climatologically drier regions. Climate variability explained roughly one‐third of the interannual variability in burned area across global ecoregions. These results highlight the importance of climate variability in enabling fire activity globally, but also identify regions where anthropogenic and other influences may facilitate weaker relationships. Empirical fire modeling efforts can complement process‐based global fire models to elucidate how fire activity is likely to change amidst complex interactions among climatic, vegetation, and human factors. Understanding how climate factors shape interannual fire variability across diverse landscapes can help improve both near‐term forecasts and long‐term projections of global fire activity. Climate explained about a third of the interannual variability in ecoregion‐level burned area in both forested and nonforested lands from 1997 to 2016. Fuel dryness during the fire season was a strong predictor of burned area in forested regions, particularly in climatologically mesic regions. By contrast, antecedent precipitation strongly correlated with nonforested burned area in semiarid regions.
AbstractList	Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with land‐use and anthropogenic factors. Yet, the degree to which climate variability affects interannual variability in burned area across Earth is less understood. Two decades of satellite‐derived burned area records across forested and nonforested areas were used to examine global interannual climate–fire relationships at ecoregion scales. Measures of fuel aridity exhibited strong positive correlations with forested burned area, with weaker relationships in climatologically drier regions. By contrast, cumulative precipitation antecedent to the fire season exhibited positive correlations to nonforested burned area, with stronger relationships in climatologically drier regions. Climate variability explained roughly one‐third of the interannual variability in burned area across global ecoregions. These results highlight the importance of climate variability in enabling fire activity globally, but also identify regions where anthropogenic and other influences may facilitate weaker relationships. Empirical fire modeling efforts can complement process‐based global fire models to elucidate how fire activity is likely to change amidst complex interactions among climatic, vegetation, and human factors. Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with land-use and anthropogenic factors. Yet, the degree to which climate variability affects interannual variability in burned area across Earth is less understood. Two-decades of satellite-derived burned area records across forested and non-forested areas were used to examine global interannual climate-fire relationships at ecoregion scales. Measures of fuel aridity exhibited strong positive correlations with forested burned area, with weaker relationships in climatologically drier regions. By contrast, cumulative precipitation antecedent to the fire season exhibited positive correlations to non-forested burned area, with stronger relationships in climatologically drier regions. Climate variability explained roughly one-third of the interannual variability in burned area across global ecoregions. These results highlight the importance of climate variability in enabling fire activity globally, but also identifies regions where anthropogenic and other influences may facilitate weaker relationships. Empirical fire modeling efforts can complement process-based global fire models to elucidate how fire activity is likely to change amidst complex interactions among climatic, vegetation, and human factors. Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with land‐use and anthropogenic factors. Yet, the degree to which climate variability affects interannual variability in burned area across Earth is less understood. Two decades of satellite‐derived burned area records across forested and nonforested areas were used to examine global interannual climate–fire relationships at ecoregion scales. Measures of fuel aridity exhibited strong positive correlations with forested burned area, with weaker relationships in climatologically drier regions. By contrast, cumulative precipitation antecedent to the fire season exhibited positive correlations to nonforested burned area, with stronger relationships in climatologically drier regions. Climate variability explained roughly one‐third of the interannual variability in burned area across global ecoregions. These results highlight the importance of climate variability in enabling fire activity globally, but also identify regions where anthropogenic and other influences may facilitate weaker relationships. Empirical fire modeling efforts can complement process‐based global fire models to elucidate how fire activity is likely to change amidst complex interactions among climatic, vegetation, and human factors. Understanding how climate factors shape interannual fire variability across diverse landscapes can help improve both near‐term forecasts and long‐term projections of global fire activity. Climate explained about a third of the interannual variability in ecoregion‐level burned area in both forested and nonforested lands from 1997 to 2016. Fuel dryness during the fire season was a strong predictor of burned area in forested regions, particularly in climatologically mesic regions. By contrast, antecedent precipitation strongly correlated with nonforested burned area in semiarid regions. Abstract Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with land‐use and anthropogenic factors. Yet, the degree to which climate variability affects interannual variability in burned area across Earth is less understood. Two decades of satellite‐derived burned area records across forested and nonforested areas were used to examine global interannual climate–fire relationships at ecoregion scales. Measures of fuel aridity exhibited strong positive correlations with forested burned area, with weaker relationships in climatologically drier regions. By contrast, cumulative precipitation antecedent to the fire season exhibited positive correlations to nonforested burned area, with stronger relationships in climatologically drier regions. Climate variability explained roughly one‐third of the interannual variability in burned area across global ecoregions. These results highlight the importance of climate variability in enabling fire activity globally, but also identify regions where anthropogenic and other influences may facilitate weaker relationships. Empirical fire modeling efforts can complement process‐based global fire models to elucidate how fire activity is likely to change amidst complex interactions among climatic, vegetation, and human factors.
Author	Williams, A. Park Abatzoglou, John T. Zubkova, Maria Boschetti, Luigi Kolden, Crystal A.
AuthorAffiliation	4 Department of Forest, Range and Fire Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID USA 3 Department of Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID USA 1 Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, 875 Perimeter Dr., Moscow, ID 83844 USA, jabatzoglou@uidaho.edu , 885-6239 2 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, NY USA
AuthorAffiliation_xml	– name: 3 Department of Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID USA – name: 1 Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, 875 Perimeter Dr., Moscow, ID 83844 USA, jabatzoglou@uidaho.edu , 885-6239 – name: 2 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, NY USA – name: 4 Department of Forest, Range and Fire Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID USA
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: John T. orcidid: 0000-0001-7599-9750 surname: Abatzoglou fullname: Abatzoglou, John T. email: jabatzoglou@uidaho.edu organization: University of Idaho – sequence: 2 givenname: A. Park surname: Williams fullname: Williams, A. Park organization: Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University – sequence: 3 givenname: Luigi surname: Boschetti fullname: Boschetti, Luigi organization: University of Idaho – sequence: 4 givenname: Maria surname: Zubkova fullname: Zubkova, Maria organization: University of Idaho – sequence: 5 givenname: Crystal A. surname: Kolden fullname: Kolden, Crystal A. organization: University of Idaho
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30047195$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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IngestDate	Tue Sep 17 21:00:30 EDT 2024 Fri Sep 13 04:55:27 EDT 2024 Thu Aug 22 11:25:41 EDT 2024 Thu May 23 23:42:35 EDT 2024 Sat Aug 24 00:42:12 EDT 2024
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Issue	11
Keywords	ecoregions fire global modeling climate
Language	English
License	2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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OpenAccessLink	https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/am-pdf/10.1111/gcb.14405
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PublicationDate	November 2018
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PublicationDate_xml	– month: 11 year: 2018 text: November 2018
PublicationDecade	2010
PublicationPlace	England
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PublicationTitle	Global change biology
PublicationTitleAlternate	Glob Chang Biol
PublicationYear	2018
Publisher	Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Publisher_xml	– name: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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Snippet	Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in conjunction with... Abstract Climate shapes geographic and seasonal patterns in global fire activity by mediating vegetation composition, productivity, and desiccation in...
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SubjectTerms	Annual variations Anthropogenic factors Area Aridity Balances (scales) Climate Climate change Climate variability Climatology Composition Desiccation Drying Earth ecoregions fire Fires Forests global Human factors Human influences Humans Interactions modeling Modelling Models, Theoretical Rainfall Regions Satellites Seasons Variability Vegetation
Title	Global patterns of interannual climate–fire relationships
URI	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111%2Fgcb.14405 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30047195 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2122247606/abstract/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC7134822
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