Trade and insecure resources

We construct a model of conflict and trade to study the consequences of interstate disputes over contested resources (land, oil, water or other resources) for arming, welfare and trade flows. Different trade regimes imply different costs of such disputes in terms of arming. Depending on world prices...

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Published inJournal of international economics Vol. 95; no. 1; pp. 98 - 114
Main Authors Garfinkel, Michelle R., Skaperdas, Stergios, Syropoulos, Constantinos
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.01.2015
Elsevier Sequoia S.A
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Abstract We construct a model of conflict and trade to study the consequences of interstate disputes over contested resources (land, oil, water or other resources) for arming, welfare and trade flows. Different trade regimes imply different costs of such disputes in terms of arming. Depending on world prices, free trade can intensify arming to such an extent that the additional security costs it brings swamp the traditional gains from trade and thus render autarky more desirable for one or all rival states. Free trade, though, is always an equilibrium, and sometimes is a dominant one with features of a prisoner's dilemma outcome. Furthermore, contestation of resources can reverse a country's apparent comparative advantage relative to its comparative advantage in the absence of conflict. And, where such conflict is present, comparisons of autarkic prices to world prices could be inaccurate predictors of trade patterns. •We study the effects of resource insecurity in a neoclassical trade model.•For certain world prices, a shift from autarky to free trade is welfare reducing.•Even so, free trade can be the unique dominant-strategy equilibrium.•Resource insecurity can reverse a country's comparative advantage.•Differences between world and autarkic prices can be poor predictors of trade patterns.
AbstractList We construct a model of conflict and trade to study the consequences of interstate disputes over contested resources (land, oil, water or other resources) for arming, welfare and trade flows. Different trade regimes imply different costs of such disputes in terms of arming. Depending on world prices, free trade can intensify arming to such an extent that the additional security costs it brings swamp the traditional gains from trade and thus render autarky more desirable for one or all rival states. Free trade, though, is always an equilibrium, and sometimes is a dominant one with features of a prisoner's dilemma outcome. Furthermore, contestation of resources can reverse a country's apparent comparative advantage relative to its comparative advantage in the absence of conflict. And, where such conflict is present, comparisons of autarkic prices to world prices could be inaccurate predictors of trade patterns. All rights reserved, Elsevier
We construct a model of conflict and trade to study the consequences of interstate disputes over contested resources (land, oil, water or other resources) for arming, welfare and trade flows. Different trade regimes imply different costs of such disputes in terms of arming. Depending on world prices, free trade can intensify arming to such an extent that the additional security costs it brings swamp the traditional gains from trade and thus render autarky more desirable for one or all rival states. Free trade, though, is always an equilibrium, and sometimes is a dominant one with features of a prisoner's dilemma outcome. Furthermore, contestation of resources can reverse a country's apparent comparative advantage relative to its comparative advantage in the absence of conflict. And, where such conflict is present, comparisons of autarkic prices to world prices could be inaccurate predictors of trade patterns.
We construct a model of conflict and trade to study the consequences of interstate disputes over contested resources (land, oil, water or other resources) for arming, welfare and trade flows. Different trade regimes imply different costs of such disputes in terms of arming. Depending on world prices, free trade can intensify arming to such an extent that the additional security costs it brings swamp the traditional gains from trade and thus render autarky more desirable for one or all rival states. Free trade, though, is always an equilibrium, and sometimes is a dominant one with features of a prisoner's dilemma outcome. Furthermore, contestation of resources can reverse a country's apparent comparative advantage relative to its comparative advantage in the absence of conflict. And, where such conflict is present, comparisons of autarkic prices to world prices could be inaccurate predictors of trade patterns. •We study the effects of resource insecurity in a neoclassical trade model.•For certain world prices, a shift from autarky to free trade is welfare reducing.•Even so, free trade can be the unique dominant-strategy equilibrium.•Resource insecurity can reverse a country's comparative advantage.•Differences between world and autarkic prices can be poor predictors of trade patterns.
Author Skaperdas, Stergios
Syropoulos, Constantinos
Garfinkel, Michelle R.
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Issue 1
Keywords Interstate disputes
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Conflict
Property rights
Security policies
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Snippet We construct a model of conflict and trade to study the consequences of interstate disputes over contested resources (land, oil, water or other resources) for...
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StartPage 98
SubjectTerms Civil war
Comparative advantage
Comparative analysis
Conflict
Economic theory
Equilibrium
Free trade
Game theory
International disputes
Interstate disputes
Prices
Prisoner's dilemma
Property rights
Security policies
Studies
Trade
Trade openness
Title Trade and insecure resources
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.10.001
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1648351647
https://search.proquest.com/docview/1660032457
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