Passengers' destinations from China: low risk of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission into Africa and South America
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through hum...
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| Published in | Epidemiology and infection Vol. 148; p. e41 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
England
Cambridge University Press
01.01.2020
|
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0950-2688 1469-4409 1469-4409 |
| DOI | 10.1017/S0950268820000424 |
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| Abstract | Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1–31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4
th
quantile being the highest risk and 1
st
quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4
th
quantile of the risk index, two in the 3
rd
quantile, one in the 2
nd
quantile and none in the 1
st
quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1-31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4th quantile being the highest risk and 1st quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4th quantile of the risk index, two in the 3rd quantile, one in the 2nd quantile and none in the 1st quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries. Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1–31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4 th quantile being the highest risk and 1 st quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4 th quantile of the risk index, two in the 3 rd quantile, one in the 2 nd quantile and none in the 1 st quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries. Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1-31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4th quantile being the highest risk and 1st quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4th quantile of the risk index, two in the 3rd quantile, one in the 2nd quantile and none in the 1st quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries.Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1-31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4th quantile being the highest risk and 1st quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4th quantile of the risk index, two in the 3rd quantile, one in the 2nd quantile and none in the 1st quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries. Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press2020The Author(s)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1–31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4th quantile being the highest risk and 1st quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4th quantile of the risk index, two in the 3rd quantile, one in the 2nd quantile and none in the 1st quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries. |
| ArticleNumber | e41 |
| Author | Ntoumi, Francine Kock, Richard Osman, Abdinasir Yusuf Haider, Najmul Simons, David Yavlinsky, Alexei Zumla, Alimuddin |
| AuthorAffiliation | 1 The Royal Veterinary College, University of London , Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield , Hertfordshire 5 Department of Infection, Division of Infection and Immunity, UCL Centre for Clinical Microbiology , Royal Free campus, London , UK 3 Fondation Congolaise pour la Recherche Médicale (FCRM) , Brazzaville , Republic of Congo 6 NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UCL Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust , London , UK 4 Institute for Tropical Medicine/University of Tübingen , Tubingen , Germany 2 Institute of Health Informatics, University College London , London , UK |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 3 Fondation Congolaise pour la Recherche Médicale (FCRM) , Brazzaville , Republic of Congo – name: 4 Institute for Tropical Medicine/University of Tübingen , Tubingen , Germany – name: 5 Department of Infection, Division of Infection and Immunity, UCL Centre for Clinical Microbiology , Royal Free campus, London , UK – name: 1 The Royal Veterinary College, University of London , Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield , Hertfordshire – name: 2 Institute of Health Informatics, University College London , London , UK – name: 6 NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, UCL Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust , London , UK |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Najmul orcidid: 0000-0002-5980-3460 surname: Haider fullname: Haider, Najmul – sequence: 2 givenname: Alexei surname: Yavlinsky fullname: Yavlinsky, Alexei – sequence: 3 givenname: David surname: Simons fullname: Simons, David – sequence: 4 givenname: Abdinasir Yusuf surname: Osman fullname: Osman, Abdinasir Yusuf – sequence: 5 givenname: Francine surname: Ntoumi fullname: Ntoumi, Francine – sequence: 6 givenname: Alimuddin surname: Zumla fullname: Zumla, Alimuddin – sequence: 7 givenname: Richard surname: Kock fullname: Kock, Richard |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32100667$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1093/jtm/taaa011 10.3390/su11133566 10.1093/jae/ejy013 10.1017/S0950268820000254 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.711379ace737b7c04c89765342a9a8c9 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.009 |
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| Copyright | Copyright Cambridge University Press 2020 The Author(s) 2020 2020 The Author(s) |
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| References | S0950268820000424_ref12 S0950268820000424_ref13 S0950268820000424_ref14 S0950268820000424_ref15 Chen (S0950268820000424_ref2) 2020; 6736 S0950268820000424_ref10 S0950268820000424_ref11 S0950268820000424_ref5 S0950268820000424_ref6 S0950268820000424_ref3 S0950268820000424_ref16 S0950268820000424_ref9 S0950268820000424_ref17 Wu (S0950268820000424_ref4) 2020 Li (S0950268820000424_ref1) 2020 Rothe (S0950268820000424_ref7) 2020 Wang (S0950268820000424_ref8) 2014 32513346 - Epidemiol Infect. 2020 Jun 09;148:e113. doi: 10.1017/S095026882000120X |
| References_xml | – start-page: 6736 year: 2020 ident: S0950268820000424_ref4 article-title: Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study publication-title: The Lancet – start-page: 1 year: 2020 ident: S0950268820000424_ref1 article-title: Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia publication-title: The New England Journal of Medicine – ident: S0950268820000424_ref5 doi: 10.1093/jtm/taaa011 – ident: S0950268820000424_ref6 – ident: S0950268820000424_ref10 doi: 10.3390/su11133566 – ident: S0950268820000424_ref3 – ident: S0950268820000424_ref13 – ident: S0950268820000424_ref11 – ident: S0950268820000424_ref14 – ident: S0950268820000424_ref15 – start-page: 2019 year: 2020 ident: S0950268820000424_ref7 article-title: Transmission of 2019-nCoV infection from an asymptomatic contact in Germany publication-title: The New England Journal of Medicine – ident: S0950268820000424_ref9 doi: 10.1093/jae/ejy013 – ident: S0950268820000424_ref17 doi: 10.1017/S0950268820000254 – year: 2014 ident: S0950268820000424_ref8 article-title: Tracing the largest seasonal migration on earth publication-title: arXiv – ident: S0950268820000424_ref12 doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.711379ace737b7c04c89765342a9a8c9 – volume: 6736 start-page: 1 year: 2020 ident: S0950268820000424_ref2 article-title: Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study publication-title: Lancet (London, England) – ident: S0950268820000424_ref16 doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.009 – reference: 32513346 - Epidemiol Infect. 2020 Jun 09;148:e113. doi: 10.1017/S095026882000120X |
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