Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules

• Published in: International journal of forecasting Vol. 30; no. 4; pp. 1098 - 1109
• Main Authors: Lassila, Jukka, Valkonen, Tarmo, Alho, Juha M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.10.2014; Elsevier Sequoia S.A
• Subjects: Changing demographic forecasts; Demographics; Economic models; Fiscal policy; Fiscal sustainability; Forecasting techniques; Population; Public finance; Stochastic models; Stochastic population simulations; Studies; Finland; Changing demographic forecasts; Stochastic population simulations; Public finance; Fiscal sustainability

All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic m...