Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules
All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic m...
Saved in:
| Published in | International journal of forecasting Vol. 30; no. 4; pp. 1098 - 1109 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
01.10.2014
Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
Cover
Loading…
| Abstract | All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic models. We develop this approach further by introducing regular demographic forecast revisions that are embedded in stochastic population projections. This allows us to separate, for each demographic outcome and under different policy rules, the expected and realized effects of population ageing on public finances. In our Finnish application, demographic uncertainty produces a considerable sustainability risk. We consider policies that reduce the likelihood of getting highly indebted and demonstrate that, although demographic forecasts are uncertain, they contain enough information to be useful in forward-looking policy rules. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic models. We develop this approach further by introducing regular demographic forecast revisions that are embedded in stochastic population projections. This allows us to separate, for each demographic outcome and under different policy rules, the expected and realized effects of population ageing on public finances. In our Finnish application, demographic uncertainty produces a considerable sustainability risk. We consider policies that reduce the likelihood of getting highly indebted and demonstrate that, although demographic forecasts are uncertain, they contain enough information to be useful in forward-looking policy rules. |
| Author | Lassila, Jukka Valkonen, Tarmo Alho, Juha M. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Jukka surname: Lassila fullname: Lassila, Jukka email: jla@etla.fi organization: The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA), Lönnrotinkatu 4 B, 00120 Helsinki, Finland – sequence: 2 givenname: Tarmo surname: Valkonen fullname: Valkonen, Tarmo organization: The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA), Lönnrotinkatu 4 B, 00120 Helsinki, Finland – sequence: 3 givenname: Juha M. surname: Alho fullname: Alho, Juha M. organization: University of Helsinki, Department of Social Research, Helsinki, Finland |
| BookMark | eNqFkMtOwzAQRS0EEm3hHyKxTphxHraXUJ5SJTawthzHBkdpHOwUqX-Pq4JYsppZnHtHc5bkdPSjISRDKBCwue4L11sfjFZxLihgVQAtAMQJWSBnNOcU4JQsEipyCgzOyTLGHgBqhrgg-Z3Z-vegpg-ns9-emKmxy6yLWg3Z5Aen91nYDSZekDOrhmguf-aKvD3cv66f8s3L4_P6ZpPrisOci6YF5BatqDjTtW3qjuuS65ayOh0w0Fqrq7IVnJccaqOYVmkrqQImLGXlilwde6fgP3cmzrL3uzCmkxIbxKYGQZtE8SOlg48xGCun4LYq7CWCPMiRvfyTIw9yJFCZ5KTo7TFq0hdfzgQZtTOjNp1L9Cw77_4v-QaLF3OD |
| CODEN | IJFOEK |
| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ijforecast_2014_02_005 crossref_primary_10_33003_fjs_2023_0704_1908 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_neucom_2015_12_111 crossref_primary_10_15407_econforecast2020_02_016 crossref_primary_10_4018_IJPADA_294120 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ijforecast_2014_02_010 crossref_primary_10_15407_eip2020_02_021 crossref_primary_10_1002_sres_2340 |
| Cites_doi | 10.1017/S1474747205001940 10.3386/w16510 10.1111/1475-6773.01112 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.005 10.2139/ssrn.1318176 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.11.005 10.2139/ssrn.1090872 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00209.x 10.1111/j.1468-0440.2004.00306.x 10.1057/palgrave.gpp.2510108 10.3386/w12805 |
| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2014 International Institute of Forecasters Copyright Elsevier Sequoia S.A. Oct-Dec 2014 |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2014 International Institute of Forecasters – notice: Copyright Elsevier Sequoia S.A. Oct-Dec 2014 |
| DBID | AAYXX CITATION |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009 |
| DatabaseName | CrossRef |
| DatabaseTitle | CrossRef |
| DatabaseTitleList | |
| DeliveryMethod | fulltext_linktorsrc |
| Discipline | Social Sciences (General) |
| EISSN | 1872-8200 |
| EndPage | 1109 |
| ExternalDocumentID | 3460958031 10_1016_j_ijforecast_2014_02_009 S0169207014000570 |
| Genre | Feature |
| GeographicLocations | Finland |
| GeographicLocations_xml | – name: Finland |
| GroupedDBID | --K --M -~X .L6 .~1 0R~ 13V 1B1 1OL 1RT 1~. 1~5 29J 3R3 4.4 457 4G. 5GY 5VS 63O 7-5 71M 85S 8P~ 96U 9JO AAAKF AAAKG AACTN AAEDT AAEDW AAFFL AAIAV AAIKJ AAKOC AALRI AAOAW AAPFB AAQFI AAQXK AARIN AAXUO ABEHJ ABJNI ABKBG ABLJU ABMAC ABMVD ABTAH ABUCO ABXDB ABYKQ ACBMB ACDAQ ACGFO ACGFS ACHQT ACHRH ACNTT ACRLP ACROA ADBBV ADEZE ADFHU ADMUD AEBSH AEKER AEYQN AFAZI AFFNX AFKWA AFODL AFTJW AGHFR AGJBL AGTHC AGUBO AGUMN AGYEJ AHHHB AI. AIEXJ AIIAU AIKHN AITUG AJBFU AJOXV AJWLA ALEQD ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS AMFUW AMRAJ APLSM ASPBG AVWKF AXJTR AXLSJ AZFZN BEHZQ BEZPJ BGSCR BKOJK BKOMP BLXMC BNSAS BNTGB BPUDD BULVW BZJEE CS3 DU5 EBS EFJIC EFLBG EJD EO8 EO9 EP2 EP3 F5P FDB FEDTE FGOYB FIRID FNPLU FYGXN G-2 G-Q GBLVA HAMUX HLX HVGLF HZ~ IHE IXIXF J1W KOM LG8 LPU LXL LXN LY1 M41 MO0 MS~ N9A O-L O9- OAUVE OZT P-8 P-9 P2P PC. PQQKQ Q38 R2- RIG ROL RPZ SBM SDF SDG SDP SDS SEB SES SEW SPCBC SSB SSD SSF SSL SSZ T5K TN5 U5U VH1 WUQ XPP XYO YK3 ZMT ZRQ ZY4 ~G- AAXKI AAYXX AFJKZ AKRWK CITATION ADMHG |
| ID | FETCH-LOGICAL-c480t-96b018f1f9487c5f65d8c38cb275ecae0bffc43b9883805ea7ca83832a079f273 |
| IEDL.DBID | .~1 |
| ISSN | 0169-2070 |
| IngestDate | Thu Oct 10 20:50:15 EDT 2024 Thu Sep 26 18:12:44 EDT 2024 Fri Feb 23 02:19:35 EST 2024 |
| IsPeerReviewed | true |
| IsScholarly | true |
| Issue | 4 |
| Keywords | Changing demographic forecasts Stochastic population simulations Public finance Fiscal sustainability |
| Language | English |
| LinkModel | DirectLink |
| MergedId | FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c480t-96b018f1f9487c5f65d8c38cb275ecae0bffc43b9883805ea7ca83832a079f273 |
| PQID | 1611650926 |
| PQPubID | 9528 |
| PageCount | 12 |
| ParticipantIDs | proquest_journals_1611650926 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ijforecast_2014_02_009 elsevier_sciencedirect_doi_10_1016_j_ijforecast_2014_02_009 |
| PublicationCentury | 2000 |
| PublicationDate | 2014-10-01 |
| PublicationDateYYYYMMDD | 2014-10-01 |
| PublicationDate_xml | – month: 10 year: 2014 text: 2014-10-01 day: 01 |
| PublicationDecade | 2010 |
| PublicationPlace | Amsterdam |
| PublicationPlace_xml | – name: Amsterdam |
| PublicationTitle | International journal of forecasting |
| PublicationYear | 2014 |
| Publisher | Elsevier B.V Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| Publisher_xml | – name: Elsevier B.V – name: Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| References | EPC (2009). Auerbach, Kotlikoff (br000050) 1987 Auerbach, A. J., & Lee, R. D. (2006). Keilman (br000090) 2005; 31 Blanchard, Chouraqui, Hagemann, Sartor (br000060) 1990; 15 NIESR Discussion Paper No. 250. Anderson, Tuljapurkar, Li (br000045) 2001 (br000015) 2008 Alho, Vanne (br000040) 2006; 22 CBO (br000075) 2001 Boards of Trustees (2003). Annual report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance Trust and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Available at NBER Working Papers No. 12805. Alho, Jensen, Lassila, Lazutka, Morkūnienė, Valkonen (br000020) 2002 Alho (br000005) 2014; 30 Lassila, Valkonen (br000100) 2004; 29 Leeper, E. M. (2010). Alho, Cruijsen, Keilman (br000010) 2008 Lee, Tuljapurkar (br000135) 2001 Alho, Jensen, Lassila, Valkonen (br000025) 2005; 4 Lee, Miller (br000120) 2001; 37 . Lassila, J., & Valkonen, T. (2008). Alho, Spencer (br000035) 2005 Creedy, J., & Scopie, G. M. (2002). Törnqvist (br000145) 1949 Alho, Lassila, Valkonen (br000030) 2005 New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 02/28. Wellington. NBER Working Paper No. 16510. Lee, R. D., Anderson, M. W., & Tuljapurkar, S. (2003). Bank of Finland Research. Discussion Papers 28/2008. Report prepared for the Social Security Administration. January. Available at European Economy 9/2009. Lee, Tuljapurkar (br000130) 1998; 88 Sefton, J., & Weale, M. (2005). Office of Policy, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics Research and Statistics Note No. 2003–01. March 2003. Lassila, Valkonen (br000105) 2007; 32 Burdick, C., & Manchester, J. (2003). Keilman (br000095) 2008; 34 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000115 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000070 CBO (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000075) 2001 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000055 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000110 Alho (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000005) 2014; 30 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000080 Alho (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000040) 2006; 22 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000125 Auerbach (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000050) 1987 Lee (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000135) 2001 Anderson (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000045) 2001 Lee (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000120) 2001; 37 (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000015) 2008 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000085 Lassila (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000105) 2007; 32 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000140 Alho (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000025) 2005; 4 Keilman (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000090) 2005; 31 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000065 Lassila (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000100) 2004; 29 Alho (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000010) 2008 Alho (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000035) 2005 Lee (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000130) 1998; 88 Alho (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000030) 2005 Törnqvist (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000145) 1949 Keilman (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000095) 2008; 34 Alho (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000020) 2002 Blanchard (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000060) 1990; 15 |
| References_xml | – year: 2005 ident: br000030 article-title: Demographic uncertainty and the evaluation of sustainability of pension systems publication-title: Pension reform: issues and prospects for non-financial defined contribution (NDC) schemes contributor: fullname: Valkonen – volume: 88 start-page: 237 year: 1998 end-page: 241 ident: br000130 article-title: Uncertain demographic futures and social security finances publication-title: American Economic Review contributor: fullname: Tuljapurkar – year: 1949 ident: br000145 article-title: Näkökohdat, jotka ovat määränneet primääristen prognoosiolettamusten valinnan publication-title: Suomen väestöä, sen uusiutumista ja tulevaa kehitystä koskevia laskelmia contributor: fullname: Törnqvist – year: 2008 ident: br000015 publication-title: Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability – year: 2001 ident: br000045 article-title: How accurate are demographic projections used in forecasting pension expenditure? publication-title: Pensions: more information, less ideology contributor: fullname: Li – volume: 31 start-page: 35 year: 2005 end-page: 50 ident: br000090 article-title: The impact of demographic uncertainty on liabilities for public old age pensions in Norway publication-title: New Zealand Population Review contributor: fullname: Keilman – year: 2005 ident: br000035 article-title: Statistical demography and forecasting contributor: fullname: Spencer – volume: 22 start-page: 725 year: 2006 end-page: 733 ident: br000040 article-title: On predictive distributions of public net liabilities publication-title: International Journal of Forecasting contributor: fullname: Vanne – year: 1987 ident: br000050 article-title: Dynamic fiscal policy contributor: fullname: Kotlikoff – volume: 32 start-page: 75 year: 2007 end-page: 94 ident: br000105 article-title: The Finnish pension reform of 2005 publication-title: Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance–Issues and Practice contributor: fullname: Valkonen – volume: 37 start-page: 1365 year: 2001 end-page: 1386 ident: br000120 article-title: An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to the U.S. Medicare system publication-title: Health Services Research contributor: fullname: Miller – year: 2001 ident: br000135 article-title: Population forecasting for fiscal planning: issues and innovations publication-title: Demographic change and fiscal policy contributor: fullname: Tuljapurkar – volume: 29 start-page: 620 year: 2004 end-page: 639 ident: br000100 article-title: Pre-funding expenditure on health and long-term care under demographic uncertainty publication-title: Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance contributor: fullname: Valkonen – year: 2002 ident: br000020 article-title: The economic effects of population ageing and demographic uncertainty in Lithuania. Research Report P98-1023-R of the European Union’s Phare ACE Program contributor: fullname: Valkonen – year: 2001 ident: br000075 article-title: Uncertainty in social security’s long-term finances: a stochastic analysis contributor: fullname: CBO – year: 2008 ident: br000010 article-title: Empirically-based specification of forecast uncertainty publication-title: Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability contributor: fullname: Keilman – volume: 34 start-page: 137 year: 2008 end-page: 153 ident: br000095 article-title: European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25~years publication-title: Population and Development Review contributor: fullname: Keilman – volume: 15 start-page: 7 year: 1990 end-page: 36 ident: br000060 article-title: The sustainability of fiscal policy: new answers to an old question publication-title: OECD Economic Studies contributor: fullname: Sartor – volume: 4 start-page: 139 year: 2005 end-page: 153 ident: br000025 article-title: Controlling the effects of demographic risks: the role of pension indexation schemes publication-title: Journal of Pension Economics and Finance contributor: fullname: Valkonen – volume: 30 start-page: 1128 year: 2014 end-page: 1135 ident: br000005 article-title: Forecasting demographic forecasts publication-title: International Journal of Forecasting contributor: fullname: Alho – year: 2005 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000030 article-title: Demographic uncertainty and the evaluation of sustainability of pension systems contributor: fullname: Alho – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000070 – year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000075 contributor: fullname: CBO – year: 2008 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000015 – year: 2005 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000035 contributor: fullname: Alho – volume: 4 start-page: 139 issue: 2 year: 2005 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000025 article-title: Controlling the effects of demographic risks: the role of pension indexation schemes publication-title: Journal of Pension Economics and Finance doi: 10.1017/S1474747205001940 contributor: fullname: Alho – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000125 doi: 10.3386/w16510 – year: 2008 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000010 article-title: Empirically-based specification of forecast uncertainty contributor: fullname: Alho – volume: 37 start-page: 1365 issue: 5 year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000120 article-title: An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to the U.S. Medicare system publication-title: Health Services Research doi: 10.1111/1475-6773.01112 contributor: fullname: Lee – year: 2002 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000020 contributor: fullname: Alho – volume: 30 start-page: 1128 issue: 4 year: 2014 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000005 article-title: Forecasting demographic forecasts publication-title: International Journal of Forecasting doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.005 contributor: fullname: Alho – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000085 – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000110 doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1318176 – volume: 31 start-page: 35 issue: 1 year: 2005 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000090 article-title: The impact of demographic uncertainty on liabilities for public old age pensions in Norway publication-title: New Zealand Population Review contributor: fullname: Keilman – volume: 22 start-page: 725 issue: 4 year: 2006 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000040 article-title: On predictive distributions of public net liabilities publication-title: International Journal of Forecasting doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.11.005 contributor: fullname: Alho – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000115 doi: 10.2139/ssrn.1090872 – volume: 34 start-page: 137 issue: 1 year: 2008 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000095 article-title: European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25~years publication-title: Population and Development Review doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00209.x contributor: fullname: Keilman – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000065 – year: 1987 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000050 contributor: fullname: Auerbach – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000140 – volume: 29 start-page: 620 issue: 4 year: 2004 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000100 article-title: Pre-funding expenditure on health and long-term care under demographic uncertainty publication-title: Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0440.2004.00306.x contributor: fullname: Lassila – volume: 32 start-page: 75 year: 2007 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000105 article-title: The Finnish pension reform of 2005 publication-title: Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance–Issues and Practice doi: 10.1057/palgrave.gpp.2510108 contributor: fullname: Lassila – year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000045 article-title: How accurate are demographic projections used in forecasting pension expenditure? contributor: fullname: Anderson – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000080 – year: 1949 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000145 article-title: Näkökohdat, jotka ovat määränneet primääristen prognoosiolettamusten valinnan contributor: fullname: Törnqvist – volume: 88 start-page: 237 year: 1998 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000130 article-title: Uncertain demographic futures and social security finances publication-title: American Economic Review contributor: fullname: Lee – ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000055 doi: 10.3386/w12805 – volume: 15 start-page: 7 year: 1990 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000060 article-title: The sustainability of fiscal policy: new answers to an old question publication-title: OECD Economic Studies contributor: fullname: Blanchard – year: 2001 ident: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009_br000135 article-title: Population forecasting for fiscal planning: issues and innovations contributor: fullname: Lee |
| SSID | ssj0005711 |
| Score | 2.1613798 |
| Snippet | All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that... |
| SourceID | proquest crossref elsevier |
| SourceType | Aggregation Database Publisher |
| StartPage | 1098 |
| SubjectTerms | Changing demographic forecasts Demographics Economic models Fiscal policy Fiscal sustainability Forecasting techniques Population Public finance Stochastic models Stochastic population simulations Studies |
| Title | Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.009 https://www.proquest.com/docview/1611650926 |
| Volume | 30 |
| hasFullText | 1 |
| inHoldings | 1 |
| isFullTextHit | |
| isPrint | |
| link | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV1LS8QwEA6LXryIT1wfSw4e9FA3bZM2wdOyKusT8QHeQpom0EXXxe5e_e1OmhQfIAiemoY2hC-TyQx88wWhfbBbymNTRirlKqIUWkKlKkpsagnVVpRNhff1TTZ6pBdP7KmDhm0tjKNVBt_vfXrjrUNPP6DZn1ZV_97piCRgsZAiuJJKl7dTOP7Apo_ev9A88tjfSZiJyH0d2Dye41WNITI0WtWOVRlTr94pfjuifjjr5gQ6W0HLIXTEAz-7VdQxkzXU9fW1OOzRGh8EIenDdRSdmBevSF1p3E6hxmpSYlvVsDh42qgC47f5s6k30OPZ6cNwFIXrESJNOZlFIitIzG1sBSQdmtmMlVynXBdJzmBAQwprNU0LwXnKCTMq1wpaaaJILiyELZtoYfI6MVsIqyJlkArDsEbQsrSc2JyVTBBtMmPyrIviFhE59SoYsqWHjeUnitKhKEkiAcUuOm6hk99WVIKz_sPfuy3aMuyqWkJ0GjvFvyTb_tfgO2jJvXlO3i5amL3NzR7EFrOi1xhPDy0OhndXt-55fjm6-QAjndAn |
| link.rule.ids | 315,783,787,4509,24128,27936,27937,45597,45691 |
| linkProvider | Elsevier |
| linkToHtml | http://utb.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV1LS8QwEA6LHvQiPnF95uBBD3XTNmkTPMnqsr72ooK3kKYJdNF12a5Xf7uTJsUHCIK30McQvkwmM_DNF4SOwG8pj00ZqZSriFIYCZWqKLGpJVRbUTYd3nejbPhIr5_YUwf1214YR6sMsd_H9CZahye9gGZvWlW9e6cjkoDHQongWiqhbl-kLj8Gpz59_8LzyGN_KWEmIvd5oPN4klc1htTQaFU7WmVMvXyn-O2M-hGtmyNosIpWQu6Iz_301lDHTNZR1zfY4rBJa3wclKRPNlB0YV68JHWlcTuFGqtJiW1Vw-rgaSMLjGdvz6beRI-Dy4f-MAr3I0SacjKPRFaQmNvYCqg6NLMZK7lOuS6SnIFBQwprNU0LwXnKCTMq1wpGaaJILizkLVtoYfI6MdsIqyJlUAuDWSNoWVpObM5KJog2mTF51kVxi4icehkM2fLDxvITRelQlCSRgGIXnbXQyW9LKiFa_-HvvRZtGbZVLSE9jZ3kX5Lt_Mv4IVoaPtzdytur0c0uWnZvPEFvDy3MZ29mHxKNeXHQONIHqqjQKw |
| openUrl | ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Demographic+forecasts+and+fiscal+policy+rules&rft.jtitle=International+journal+of+forecasting&rft.au=Lassila%2C+Jukka&rft.au=Valkonen%2C+Tarmo&rft.au=Alho%2C+Juha+M.&rft.date=2014-10-01&rft.issn=0169-2070&rft.volume=30&rft.issue=4&rft.spage=1098&rft.epage=1109&rft_id=info:doi/10.1016%2Fj.ijforecast.2014.02.009&rft.externalDBID=n%2Fa&rft.externalDocID=10_1016_j_ijforecast_2014_02_009 |
| thumbnail_l | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0169-2070&client=summon |
| thumbnail_m | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0169-2070&client=summon |
| thumbnail_s | http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0169-2070&client=summon |