Tree resistance outweighs climatic drivers in governing extreme growth suppression

• Published in: iScience Vol. 28; no. 8; p. 113043
• Main Authors: Dong, Yuntao, Fang, Ouya, Deng, Ying, Lai, Jiangshan, Jia, Hengfeng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Elsevier Inc 15.08.2025; Elsevier
• Subjects: Environmental science; Forestry; Global change; Plant Biology; Plant Biology; Environmental science; Global change; Forestry
• ISSN: 2589-0042; 2589-0042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.113043

While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees’ intrinsic resistance capacity in mediating EGS remains a persistent knowledge gap. By analyzing 4,599 EGSs across 2,631 juniper trees at 61 sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we quantified the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on EGS using a random forest model and a piecewise structural equation model. The results showed tree resistance exerted 1.7× greater effect on EGS likelihood than climatic variables of the current year, mediated through both direct physiological pathways and indirect age-related effects. Tree age negatively modulated resistance capacity. These findings fundamentally challenge the climate-centric paradigm in dendroecology, which emphasizes the critical role of individual tree physiology in mediating climate responses. Our mechanistic framework advances a predictive model of forest dynamics under climate change by integrating resilience with traditional climate-growth relationships. [Display omitted] •Extreme growth suppression (EGS) is determined by climate extremes and intrinsic factors•Physiological constraints surpass climate stresses that challenge climate-centric models•Tree age reduces intrinsic resistance capacity, which indirectly increases the risk of EGS•Random forest and SEM integration resolve individual-level climate response heterogeneity Environmental science; Global change; Plant Biology; Forestry