Tree resistance outweighs climatic drivers in governing extreme growth suppression

While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees’ intrinsic resistance capacity in mediating EGS remains a persistent knowledge gap. By analyzing 4,599 EGSs across 2,631 juniper trees at 61 sites on the Tibetan Plat...

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Published iniScience Vol. 28; no. 8; p. 113043
Main Authors Dong, Yuntao, Fang, Ouya, Deng, Ying, Lai, Jiangshan, Jia, Hengfeng
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States Elsevier Inc 15.08.2025
Elsevier
Subjects
Environmental science
Forestry
Global change
Plant Biology
Plant Biology
Environmental science
Global change
Forestry
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Abstract While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees’ intrinsic resistance capacity in mediating EGS remains a persistent knowledge gap. By analyzing 4,599 EGSs across 2,631 juniper trees at 61 sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we quantified the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on EGS using a random forest model and a piecewise structural equation model. The results showed tree resistance exerted 1.7× greater effect on EGS likelihood than climatic variables of the current year, mediated through both direct physiological pathways and indirect age-related effects. Tree age negatively modulated resistance capacity. These findings fundamentally challenge the climate-centric paradigm in dendroecology, which emphasizes the critical role of individual tree physiology in mediating climate responses. Our mechanistic framework advances a predictive model of forest dynamics under climate change by integrating resilience with traditional climate-growth relationships. [Display omitted] •Extreme growth suppression (EGS) is determined by climate extremes and intrinsic factors•Physiological constraints surpass climate stresses that challenge climate-centric models•Tree age reduces intrinsic resistance capacity, which indirectly increases the risk of EGS•Random forest and SEM integration resolve individual-level climate response heterogeneity Environmental science; Global change; Plant Biology; Forestry
AbstractList While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees' intrinsic resistance capacity in mediating EGS remains a persistent knowledge gap. By analyzing 4,599 EGSs across 2,631 juniper trees at 61 sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we quantified the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on EGS using a random forest model and a piecewise structural equation model. The results showed tree resistance exerted 1.7× greater effect on EGS likelihood than climatic variables of the current year, mediated through both direct physiological pathways and indirect age-related effects. Tree age negatively modulated resistance capacity. These findings fundamentally challenge the climate-centric paradigm in dendroecology, which emphasizes the critical role of individual tree physiology in mediating climate responses. Our mechanistic framework advances a predictive model of forest dynamics under climate change by integrating resilience with traditional climate-growth relationships.
While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees’ intrinsic resistance capacity in mediating EGS remains a persistent knowledge gap. By analyzing 4,599 EGSs across 2,631 juniper trees at 61 sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we quantified the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on EGS using a random forest model and a piecewise structural equation model. The results showed tree resistance exerted 1.7× greater effect on EGS likelihood than climatic variables of the current year, mediated through both direct physiological pathways and indirect age-related effects. Tree age negatively modulated resistance capacity. These findings fundamentally challenge the climate-centric paradigm in dendroecology, which emphasizes the critical role of individual tree physiology in mediating climate responses. Our mechanistic framework advances a predictive model of forest dynamics under climate change by integrating resilience with traditional climate-growth relationships. • Extreme growth suppression (EGS) is determined by climate extremes and intrinsic factors • Physiological constraints surpass climate stresses that challenge climate-centric models • Tree age reduces intrinsic resistance capacity, which indirectly increases the risk of EGS • Random forest and SEM integration resolve individual-level climate response heterogeneity Environmental science; Global change; Plant Biology; Forestry
While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees’ intrinsic resistance capacity in mediating EGS remains a persistent knowledge gap. By analyzing 4,599 EGSs across 2,631 juniper trees at 61 sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we quantified the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on EGS using a random forest model and a piecewise structural equation model. The results showed tree resistance exerted 1.7× greater effect on EGS likelihood than climatic variables of the current year, mediated through both direct physiological pathways and indirect age-related effects. Tree age negatively modulated resistance capacity. These findings fundamentally challenge the climate-centric paradigm in dendroecology, which emphasizes the critical role of individual tree physiology in mediating climate responses. Our mechanistic framework advances a predictive model of forest dynamics under climate change by integrating resilience with traditional climate-growth relationships. [Display omitted] •Extreme growth suppression (EGS) is determined by climate extremes and intrinsic factors•Physiological constraints surpass climate stresses that challenge climate-centric models•Tree age reduces intrinsic resistance capacity, which indirectly increases the risk of EGS•Random forest and SEM integration resolve individual-level climate response heterogeneity Environmental science; Global change; Plant Biology; Forestry
While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees' intrinsic resistance capacity in mediating EGS remains a persistent knowledge gap. By analyzing 4,599 EGSs across 2,631 juniper trees at 61 sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we quantified the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on EGS using a random forest model and a piecewise structural equation model. The results showed tree resistance exerted 1.7× greater effect on EGS likelihood than climatic variables of the current year, mediated through both direct physiological pathways and indirect age-related effects. Tree age negatively modulated resistance capacity. These findings fundamentally challenge the climate-centric paradigm in dendroecology, which emphasizes the critical role of individual tree physiology in mediating climate responses. Our mechanistic framework advances a predictive model of forest dynamics under climate change by integrating resilience with traditional climate-growth relationships.While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees' intrinsic resistance capacity in mediating EGS remains a persistent knowledge gap. By analyzing 4,599 EGSs across 2,631 juniper trees at 61 sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we quantified the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on EGS using a random forest model and a piecewise structural equation model. The results showed tree resistance exerted 1.7× greater effect on EGS likelihood than climatic variables of the current year, mediated through both direct physiological pathways and indirect age-related effects. Tree age negatively modulated resistance capacity. These findings fundamentally challenge the climate-centric paradigm in dendroecology, which emphasizes the critical role of individual tree physiology in mediating climate responses. Our mechanistic framework advances a predictive model of forest dynamics under climate change by integrating resilience with traditional climate-growth relationships.
ArticleNumber 113043
Author Deng, Ying
Lai, Jiangshan
Jia, Hengfeng
Fang, Ouya
Dong, Yuntao
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Snippet While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees’ intrinsic resistance...
While climate extremes are conventionally considered primary triggers of extreme growth suppression (EGS) in trees, the role of trees' intrinsic resistance...
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SubjectTerms Environmental science
Forestry
Global change
Plant Biology
Title Tree resistance outweighs climatic drivers in governing extreme growth suppression
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.113043
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/40697827
https://www.proquest.com/docview/3232489891
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Volume 28
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