Surprising rationality in probability judgment: Assessing two competing models

• Published in: Cognition Vol. 170; no. C; pp. 280 - 297
• Main Authors: Costello, Fintan, Watts, Paul, Fisher, Christopher
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 01.01.2018; Elsevier Science Ltd; Elsevier
• Subjects: Conjunction fallacy; Noise; Probability; Probability judgments; Probability theory; Quantum theory; Rationality; Probability; Conjunction fallacy; Quantum theory

We describe 4 experiments testing contrasting predictions of two recent models of probability judgment: the quantum probability model (Busemeyer, Pothos, Franco, & Trueblood, 2011) and the probability theory plus noise model (Costello & Watts, 2014, 2016a). Both models assume that people est...