Opportunities for a probabilistic risk assessment of chemicals in the European Union

• Published in: Chemosphere (Oxford) Vol. 43; no. 2; pp. 257 - 264
• Main Authors: Jager, Tjalling, Vermeire, Theo G, Rikken, Mathieu G.J, van der Poel, Paul
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.04.2001; Elsevier
• Subjects: Air. Soil. Water. Waste. Feeding; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Applied ecology; Applied sciences; Biological and medical sciences; Ecotoxicology, biological effects of pollution; Environment. Living conditions; Environmental Exposure - standards; Environmental Exposure - statistics & numerical data; European Union; EUSES; Exact sciences and technology; Food Contamination; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; Global environmental pollution; Humans; Industrial Waste; International Cooperation; Medical sciences; Models, Statistical; No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Level; Pollution; Public health. Hygiene; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine; Risk assessment; Risk Assessment - legislation & jurisprudence; Risk Assessment - methods; Soil Pollutants; TGD; uncertainty; Uncertainty analysis; Water Pollution; European Union; TGD; EUSES; Uncertainty analysis; Risk assessment; Uncertainty; Pollution; Health and environment; Ecotoxicology; Toxicity; European Union; Ecosystem; Environment impact; Dose equivalent; Risk analysis; Public health; Chemical product
• ISSN: 0045-6535; 1879-1298
• DOI: 10.1016/S0045-6535(00)00087-4

In risk assessment of new and existing substances, it is current practice to characterise risk using a deterministic quotient of the exposure concentration, or the dose, and a no-effect level. A sense of uncertainty is tackled by introducing worst-case assumptions in the methodology. Since this procedure leads to an assessment with an unknown degree of conservatism, it is advisable to deal quantitatively with uncertainties. This paper discusses the advantages and possibilities of a probabilistic risk assessment framework, illustrated with an example calculation. Furthermore, representatives of EU Member States and the chemical industry were interviewed to find out their views on applying uncertainty analysis to risk assessment of industrial chemicals.