Cost (or Price) Forecasting in the Face of Technological Advance

• Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 102; no. 477; pp. 28 - 43
• Main Authors: Harville, David A, Yashchin, Emmanuel
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Alexandria, VA Taylor & Francis 01.03.2007; American Statistical Association; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Accuracy; Analytical forecasting; Applications; Applications and Case Studies; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian inference; Bayesian method; Cost allocation; Cost estimates; Cost estimation models; Costs; Density distributions; Distribution theory; Estimate reliability; Exact sciences and technology; Forecasting models; Forecasts; General topics; Gibbs sampler; Hard disks; High technology; Inference from stochastic processes; time series analysis; Market theory; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Markovian processes; Mathematics; Matrices; Monte Carlo simulation; Moore's law; Price models; Probability and statistics; Probability theory and stochastic processes; Quarterly estimates; Research methodology; Sciences and techniques of general use; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Statistics; Technological change; Technological development; Technological forecasting; Bayes estimation; Stochastic model; Speed; Prior distribution; Gibbs sampling; Implementation; Statistical method; Gibbs sampler; Forecasting theory; Price; Moore's law; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Sampler; Distribution function; Relevant information; Bayesian inference; Application; Posterior distribution

The problem considered involves forecasting the future costs of hard drives of various capacities and speeds of revolution or, more generally, forecasting the future costs of various quantifiably different versions of a commodity that is subject to technological advance. In the primary development,...