Cost (or Price) Forecasting in the Face of Technological Advance - Harville, David A; Yashchin, Emmanuel (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2007)
Keywords: Accuracy; Analytical forecasting; Applications; Applications and Case Studies; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian inference; Bayesian method; Cost allocation; Cost estimates; Cost estimation models; Costs; Density distributions; Distribution theory; Estimate reliability; Exact sciences and technology; Forecasting models; Forecasts; General topics; Gibbs sampler; Hard disks; High technology; Inference from stochastic processes; time series analysis; Market theory; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Markovian processes; Mathematics; Matrices; Monte Carlo simulation; Moore's law; Price models; Probability and statistics; Probability theory and stochastic processes; Quarterly estimates; Research methodology; Sciences and techniques of general use; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Statistics; Technological change; Technological development; Technological forecasting; Bayes estimation; Stochastic model; Speed; Prior distribution; Gibbs sampling; Implementation; Statistical method; Gibbs sampler; Forecasting theory; Price; Moore's law; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Sampler; Distribution function; Relevant information; Bayesian inference; Application; Posterior distribution