Diagnosis of the Downstream Ridging Associated with Extratropical Transition Using Short-Term Ensemble Forecasts

• Published in: Journal of the atmospheric sciences Vol. 67; no. 3; pp. 817 - 833
• Main Author: TORN, Ryan D
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01.03.2010
• Subjects: Apexes; Cyclones; Earth, ocean, space; Ensemble forecasting; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Fluctuations; Flux; Frontal precipitation; Frontogenesis; Hurricanes; Initial conditions; Kalman filters; Mathematical models; Meteorology; Moisture; Moisture effects; Moisture flux; Perturbation; Physics of the high neutral atmosphere; Potential vorticity; Precipitation; Ridges; Ridging; Standard deviation; Tropical cyclones; Troposphere; Typhoons; Vorticity; Weather forecasting; Wind; Winds; models; Weather forecast; Tropical extratropical transition; Initial condition; atmospheric precipitation; Ensemble Kalman filter; Frontogenesis; Potential vorticity; troposphere; Multiple regression; Variance; Typhoon; Severe weather; Tropical cyclone; Short range forecast; winds

The dynamical mechanisms that led to downstream ridging during the extratropical transition (ET) of Typhoons Tokage and Nabi are evaluated using data drawn from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). During both transitions, the ensemble covar...