Surrogate optimization of deep neural networks for groundwater predictions

• Published in: Journal of global optimization Vol. 81; no. 1; pp. 203 - 231
• Main Authors: Müller, Juliane, Park, Jangho, Sahu, Reetik, Varadharajan, Charuleka, Arora, Bhavna, Faybishenko, Boris, Agarwal, Deborah
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 01.09.2021; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Algorithms; Ambient temperature; Artificial neural networks; Computer Science; Deep learning; Groundwater; Groundwater levels; Machine learning; Management; Mathematics; Mathematics and Statistics; Multilayer perceptrons; Neural networks; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Optimization; Precipitation variability; Random sampling; Real Functions; Water; Water, Underground; Hyperparameter optimization; Surrogate models; Groundwater prediction; Machine learning; Derivative-free optimization
• DOI: 10.1007/s10898-020-00912-0
• ISSN: 0925-5001

Sustainable management of groundwater resources under changing climatic conditions require an application of reliable and accurate predictions of groundwater levels. Mechanistic multi-scale, multi-physics simulation models are often too hard to use for this purpose, especially for groundwater managers who do not have access to the complex compute resources and data. Therefore, we analyzed the applicability and performance of four modern deep learning computational models for predictions of groundwater levels. We compare three methods for optimizing the models’ hyperparameters, including two surrogate model-based algorithms and a random sampling method. The models were tested using predictions of the groundwater level in Butte County, California, USA, taking into account the temporal variability of streamflow, precipitation, and ambient temperature. Our numerical study shows that the optimization of the hyperparameters can lead to reasonably accurate performance of all models (root mean squared errors of groundwater predictions of 2 meters or less), but the “simplest” network, namely a multilayer perceptron (MLP) performs overall better for learning and predicting groundwater data than the more advanced long short-term memory or convolutional neural networks in terms of prediction accuracy and time-to-solution, making the MLP a suitable candidate for groundwater prediction.