No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe

Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 119; no. 51; pp. 1 - 8
Main Authors Stenseth, Nils Chr, Tao, Yuxin, Zhang, Chutian, Bramanti, Barbara, Büntgen, Ulf, Cong, Xianbin, Cui, Yujun, Zhou, Hu, Dawson, Lorna A., Mooney, Sacha J., Li, Dong, Fell, Henry G., Cohn, Samuel, Sebbane, Florent, Slavin, Philip, Liang, Wannian, Tong, Howell, Yang, Ruifu, Xu, Lei
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 20.12.2022
The National Academy of Sciences
Subjects
Biological Sciences
Bubonic plague
Climate
Disease Reservoirs
Environmental conditions
Europe
Humans
Pandemics - history
Plague - epidemiology
Plague - history
Reservoirs
Rodents
Soil
Soil characteristics
Soil properties
Soil texture
Soils
Statistical methods
Texture
Wildlife
Yersinia pestis
Europe
United States > US
rodent diversity
natural plague reservoirs
environmental conditions
Europe
Yersinia pestis
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Abstract Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported “natural plague reservoirs”. We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for longterm plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that longterm plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
AbstractList Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported “natural plague reservoirs”. We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for longterm plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that longterm plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
Caused by , plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338-1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported "natural plague reservoirs". We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
Caused by Yersinia pestis , plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported “natural plague reservoirs”. We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
Plague killed millions of people during the three pandemics in the past two millennia. Despite much research, it remains unclear whether persistent natural plague reservoirs existed in Europe. To examine this question, we have developed a statistical model based on high-resolution and long-term environmental data. From it, we have found no evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical or contemporary Europe. This suggests that the plague bacterium was repeatedly introduced to Europe, although it might have survived in local medium-term reservoirs. Finally, we question the importance of wildlife rodents as the main hosts in Europe. These findings have wide-ranging significance for the study of human plague through history and provide new tools for resolving century-long enigmas posed by plague. Caused by Yersinia pestis , plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported “natural plague reservoirs”. We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported "natural plague reservoirs". We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338-1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported "natural plague reservoirs". We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338-1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported "natural plague reservoirs". We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
Author Bramanti, Barbara
Dawson, Lorna A.
Stenseth, Nils Chr
Tong, Howell
Fell, Henry G.
Cohn, Samuel
Zhang, Chutian
Slavin, Philip
Zhou, Hu
Li, Dong
Mooney, Sacha J.
Büntgen, Ulf
Cong, Xianbin
Cui, Yujun
Xu, Lei
Sebbane, Florent
Liang, Wannian
Yang, Ruifu
Tao, Yuxin
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Issue 51
Keywords rodent diversity
natural plague reservoirs
environmental conditions
Europe
Yersinia pestis
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EC/H2020/882727
Contributed by Nils Stenseth; received June 8, 2022; accepted October 7, 2022; reviewed by Barbel Finkenstadt, Paul Slack, and David M. Wagner
1N.C.S., Y.T., and C.Z. contributed equally to this work.
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Snippet Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with...
Caused by Yersinia pestis , plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with...
Caused by , plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death...
Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with...
Plague killed millions of people during the three pandemics in the past two millennia. Despite much research, it remains unclear whether persistent natural...
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SubjectTerms Biological Sciences
Bubonic plague
Climate
Disease Reservoirs
Environmental conditions
Europe
Humans
Pandemics - history
Plague - epidemiology
Plague - history
Reservoirs
Rodents
Soil
Soil characteristics
Soil properties
Soil texture
Soils
Statistical methods
Texture
Wildlife
Yersinia pestis
Title No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe
URI https://www.jstor.org/stable/27207397
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36508668
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2759061425
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2754047883
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/101485
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC9907128
Volume 119
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