Predicting congenital rubella syndrome in Japan, 2018–2019

• Published in: International journal of infectious diseases Vol. 82; pp. 1 - 5
• Main Authors: Lee, Hyojung, Kayano, Taishi, Nishiura, Hiroshi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Canada Elsevier Ltd 01.05.2019; Elsevier
• Subjects: Epidemiology; Forecasting; Japan; Outbreak; Prediction; Rubella virus; Statistical model; Outbreak; Statistical model; Japan; Prediction; Rubella virus; Forecasting; Epidemiology

•There were 45 cases of congenital rubella syndrome in Japan during 2012–14.•We used an integral equation model to predict the CRS epidemic in 2018–19.•Mean time delay from mother’s infection to diagnosis was estimated at 24weeks.•Expected CRS cases (2018–19) have already exceeded 13 cases as of wee...