Probabilistic assessment of drought stress vulnerability in grasslands of Xinjiang, China

In the process of climate warming, drought has increased the vulnerability of ecosystems. Due to the extreme sensitivity of grasslands to drought, grassland drought stress vulnerability assessment has become a current issue to be addressed. First, correlation analysis was used to determine the chara...

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Published inFrontiers in plant science Vol. 14; p. 1143863
Main Authors Han, Wanqiang, Guan, Jingyun, Zheng, Jianghua, Liu, Yujia, Ju, Xifeng, Liu, Liang, Li, Jianhao, Mao, Xurui, Li, Congren
Format Journal Article
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Published Switzerland Frontiers Media S.A 16.03.2023
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Abstract In the process of climate warming, drought has increased the vulnerability of ecosystems. Due to the extreme sensitivity of grasslands to drought, grassland drought stress vulnerability assessment has become a current issue to be addressed. First, correlation analysis was used to determine the characteristics of the normalized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) response of the grassland normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to multiscale drought stress (SPEI-1 ~ SPEI-24) in the study area. Then, the response of grassland vegetation to drought stress at different growth periods was modeled using conjugate function analysis. Conditional probabilities were used to explore the probability of NDVI decline to the lower percentile in grasslands under different levels of drought stress (moderate, severe and extreme drought) and to further analyze the differences in drought vulnerability across climate zones and grassland types. Finally, the main influencing factors of drought stress in grassland at different periods were identified. The results of the study showed that the spatial pattern of drought response time of grassland in Xinjiang had obvious seasonality, with an increasing trend from January to March and November to December in the nongrowing season and a decreasing trend from June to October in the growing season. August was the most vulnerable period for grassland drought stress, with the highest probability of grassland loss. When the grasslands experience a certain degree of loss, they develop strategies to mitigate the effects of drought stress, thereby decreasing the probability of falling into the lower percentile. Among them, the highest probability of drought vulnerability was found in semiarid grasslands, as well as in plains grasslands and alpine subalpine grasslands. In addition, the primary drivers of April and August were temperature, whereas for September, the most significant influencing factor was evapotranspiration. The results of the study will not only deepen our understanding of the dynamics of drought stress in grasslands under climate change but also provide a scientific basis for the management of grassland ecosystems in response to drought and the allocation of water in the future.
AbstractList In the process of climate warming, drought has increased the vulnerability of ecosystems. Due to the extreme sensitivity of grasslands to drought, grassland drought stress vulnerability assessment has become a current issue to be addressed. First, correlation analysis was used to determine the characteristics of the normalized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) response of the grassland normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to multiscale drought stress (SPEI-1 ~ SPEI-24) in the study area. Then, the response of grassland vegetation to drought stress at different growth periods was modeled using conjugate function analysis. Conditional probabilities were used to explore the probability of NDVI decline to the lower percentile in grasslands under different levels of drought stress (moderate, severe and extreme drought) and to further analyze the differences in drought vulnerability across climate zones and grassland types. Finally, the main influencing factors of drought stress in grassland at different periods were identified. The results of the study showed that the spatial pattern of drought response time of grassland in Xinjiang had obvious seasonality, with an increasing trend from January to March and November to December in the nongrowing season and a decreasing trend from June to October in the growing season. August was the most vulnerable period for grassland drought stress, with the highest probability of grassland loss. When the grasslands experience a certain degree of loss, they develop strategies to mitigate the effects of drought stress, thereby decreasing the probability of falling into the lower percentile. Among them, the highest probability of drought vulnerability was found in semiarid grasslands, as well as in plains grasslands and alpine subalpine grasslands. In addition, the primary drivers of April and August were temperature, whereas for September, the most significant influencing factor was evapotranspiration. The results of the study will not only deepen our understanding of the dynamics of drought stress in grasslands under climate change but also provide a scientific basis for the management of grassland ecosystems in response to drought and the allocation of water in the future.
Author Li, Congren
Zheng, Jianghua
Guan, Jingyun
Ju, Xifeng
Liu, Liang
Liu, Yujia
Li, Jianhao
Mao, Xurui
Han, Wanqiang
AuthorAffiliation 1 College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University , Urumqi , China
3 College of Tourism, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics , Urumqi , China
2 Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University , Urumqi , China
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 1 College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University , Urumqi , China
– name: 3 College of Tourism, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics , Urumqi , China
– name: 2 Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University , Urumqi , China
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Keywords influencing factors
grassland types
climate regions
vulnerability probability
drought stress
Language English
License Copyright © 2023 Han, Guan, Zheng, Liu, Ju, Liu, Li, Mao and Li.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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Reviewed by: Ankur Srivastava, University of Technology Sydney, Australia; Khurram Shahzad, CAS, China
Edited by: Helena Freitas, University of Coimbra, Portugal
This article was submitted to Plant Abiotic Stress, a section of the journal Frontiers in Plant Science
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Snippet In the process of climate warming, drought has increased the vulnerability of ecosystems. Due to the extreme sensitivity of grasslands to drought, grassland...
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StartPage 1143863
SubjectTerms climate regions
drought stress
grassland types
influencing factors
Plant Science
vulnerability probability
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Title Probabilistic assessment of drought stress vulnerability in grasslands of Xinjiang, China
URI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37008478
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Volume 14
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