Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be?

• Published in: Ecography (Copenhagen) Vol. 32; no. 5; pp. 733 - 744
• Main Authors: Zurell, Damaris, Jeltsch, Florian, Dormann, Carsten F., Schröder, Boris
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.10.2009; Blackwell Publishing; Blackwell
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; biogeography; Biological and medical sciences; Butterflies; cans; Climate change; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; dynamic models; Earth, ocean, space; Ecological modeling; Ecology; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; issues and policy; linear models; Meteorology; model validation; Modeling; Parasitism; Parasitoids; planning; Plants; Population ecology; predators; prediction; Species; Process dynamics; Policy; Demography; Statistical distribution; Conservation; Environmental factor; Ecology; Dispersion; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Accuracy; Spatial distribution; Geographic distribution; Statistical model; Global change; Population dynamics; Planning; Dynamic model; Distribution range; Biotic factor

It is widely acknowledged that species respond to climate change by range shifts. Robust predictions of such changes in species' distributions are pivotal for conservation planning and policy making, and are thus major challenges in ecological research. Statistical species distribution models (...