Asymptomatic Transmissibility Calls for Implementing a Zero-COVID Strategy to End the Current Global Crisis

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges. A zero-COVID strategy is needed to end the crisis, but there is a lack of biological evidence. In the present study, we collected available data on SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 to perform a comprehensive compara...

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Published inFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology Vol. 12; p. 836409
Main Authors Zhang, Chaobao, Wang, Hongzhi, Wen, Zilu, Gu, Mingjun, Liu, Lianyong, Li, Xiangqi
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Switzerland Frontiers Media S.A 19.04.2022
Subjects
asymptomatic spread
Cellular and Infection Microbiology
containment measure
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
Humans
Pandemics - prevention & control
SARS-CoV-2
software, artificial intelligence
zero-COVID strategy
COVID-19
software, artificial intelligence
asymptomatic spread
SARS-CoV-2
containment measure
zero-COVID strategy
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Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges. A zero-COVID strategy is needed to end the crisis, but there is a lack of biological evidence. In the present study, we collected available data on SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 to perform a comprehensive comparative analysis and visualization. The study results revealed that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is low, whereas its death toll is high compared to SARS and MERS. Moreover, COVID-19 had a higher asymptomatic rate. In particular, COVID-19 exhibited unique asymptomatic transmissibility. Further, we developed a foolproof operating software in Python language to simulate COVID-19 spread in Wuhan, showing that the cumulative cases of existing asymptomatic spread would be over 100 times higher than that of only symptomatic spread. This confirmed the essential role of asymptomatic transmissibility in the uncontrolled global spread of COVID-19, which enables the necessity of implementing the zero-COVID policy. In conclusion, we revealed the triggering role of the asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID-19 in this unprecedented global crisis, which offers support to the zero-COVID strategy against the recurring COVID-19 spread.
AbstractList The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges. A zero-COVID strategy is needed to end the crisis, but there is a lack of biological evidence. In the present study, we collected available data on SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 to perform a comprehensive comparative analysis and visualization. The study results revealed that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is low, whereas its death toll is high compared to SARS and MERS. Moreover, COVID-19 had a higher asymptomatic rate. In particular, COVID-19 exhibited unique asymptomatic transmissibility. Further, we developed a foolproof operating software in Python language to simulate COVID-19 spread in Wuhan, showing that the cumulative cases of existing asymptomatic spread would be over 100 times higher than that of only symptomatic spread. This confirmed the essential role of asymptomatic transmissibility in the uncontrolled global spread of COVID-19, which enables the necessity of implementing the zero-COVID policy. In conclusion, we revealed the triggering role of the asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID-19 in this unprecedented global crisis, which offers support to the zero-COVID strategy against the recurring COVID-19 spread.
Author Li, Xiangqi
Wen, Zilu
Zhang, Chaobao
Wang, Hongzhi
Gu, Mingjun
Liu, Lianyong
AuthorAffiliation 5 Department of Scientific Research, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center , Shanghai , China
6 Department of Endocrinology, Gongli Hospital, The Second Military Medical University , Shanghai , China
1 Department of Geriatric Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University , Shanghai , China
4 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Magnetic Resonance, East China Normal University , Shanghai , China
2 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Clinical Geriatric Medicine, Huadong Hospital , Shanghai , China
7 Department of Endocrinology, Punan Hospital , Shanghai , China
3 Shanghai Institute of Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Shanghai , China
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 5 Department of Scientific Research, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center , Shanghai , China
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– name: 7 Department of Endocrinology, Punan Hospital , Shanghai , China
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– name: 4 Shanghai Key Laboratory of Magnetic Resonance, East China Normal University , Shanghai , China
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Keywords COVID-19
software, artificial intelligence
asymptomatic spread
SARS-CoV-2
containment measure
zero-COVID strategy
Language English
License Copyright © 2022 Zhang, Wang, Wen, Gu, Liu and Li.
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These authors have contributed equally to this work
This article was submitted to Microbiome in Health and Disease, a section of the journal Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology
Edited by: Carlo Contini, University of Ferrara, Italy
Reviewed by: Agustin Valenzuela-Fernandez, University of La Laguna, Spain; Zeinab Abdelrahman, Zhejiang University, China; Sk. Abdus Samad, Khulna University, Bangladesh
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  article-title: Evidence of SARS-Cov-2 Infection in Returning Travelers From Wuhan, China
  publication-title: N Engl. J. Med.
  doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2001899
  contributor:
    fullname: Hoehl
– volume: 22
  start-page: 72
  year: 2020
  ident: B27
  article-title: Is COVID-19 Receiving ADE From Other Coronaviruses
  publication-title: Microbes Infect.
  doi: 10.1016/j.micinf.2020.02.006
  contributor:
    fullname: Tetro
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Snippet The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges. A zero-COVID strategy is needed to end the crisis, but there is a...
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SubjectTerms asymptomatic spread
Cellular and Infection Microbiology
containment measure
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
Humans
Pandemics - prevention & control
SARS-CoV-2
software, artificial intelligence
zero-COVID strategy
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Title Asymptomatic Transmissibility Calls for Implementing a Zero-COVID Strategy to End the Current Global Crisis
URI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35521224
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Volume 12
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