Risk for African Swine Fever Introduction Into Kazakhstan

African swine fever (ASF) is a disease of swine that is endemic to some African countries and that has rapidly spread since 2007 through many regions of Asia and Europe, becoming endemic in some areas of those continents. Since there is neither vaccine nor treatment for ASF, prevention is an importa...

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Published inFrontiers in veterinary science Vol. 8; p. 605910
Main Authors Schettino, Daniella N, Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K, Beisembayev, Kanatzhan K, Korennoy, Fedor I, Sultanov, Akhmetzhan A, Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y, Kadyrov, Ablaikhan S, Perez, Andres M
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Published Switzerland Frontiers Media S.A 11.02.2021
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Abstract African swine fever (ASF) is a disease of swine that is endemic to some African countries and that has rapidly spread since 2007 through many regions of Asia and Europe, becoming endemic in some areas of those continents. Since there is neither vaccine nor treatment for ASF, prevention is an important action to avoid the economic losses that this disease can impose on a country. Although the Republic of Kazakhstan has remained free from the disease, some of its neighbors have become ASF-infected, raising concerns about the potential introduction of the disease into the country. Here, we have identified clusters of districts in Kazakhstan at highest risk for ASF introduction. Questionnaires were administered, and districts were visited to collect and document, for the first time, at the district level, the distribution of swine operations and population in Kazakhstan. A snowball sampling approach was used to identify ASF experts worldwide, and a conjoint analysis model was used to elicit their opinion in relation to the extent at which relevant epidemiological factors influence the risk for ASF introduction into disease-free regions. The resulting model was validated using data from the Russian Federation and Mongolia. Finally, the validated model was used to rank and categorize Kazakhstani districts in terms of the risk for serving as the point of entry for ASF into the country, and clusters of districts at highest risk of introduction were identified using the normal model of the spatial scan statistic. Results here will help to allocate resources for surveillance and prevention activities aimed at early detecting a hypothetical ASF introduction into Kazakhstan, ultimately helping to protect the sanitary status of the country.
AbstractList African swine fever (ASF) is a disease of swine that is endemic to some African countries and that has rapidly spread since 2007 through many regions of Asia and Europe, becoming endemic in some areas of those continents. Since there is neither vaccine nor treatment for ASF, prevention is an important action to avoid the economic losses that this disease can impose on a country. Although the Republic of Kazakhstan has remained free from the disease, some of its neighbors have become ASF-infected, raising concerns about the potential introduction of the disease into the country. Here, we have identified clusters of districts in Kazakhstan at highest risk for ASF introduction. Questionnaires were administered, and districts were visited to collect and document, for the first time, at the district level, the distribution of swine operations and population in Kazakhstan. A snowball sampling approach was used to identify ASF experts worldwide, and a conjoint analysis model was used to elicit their opinion in relation to the extent at which relevant epidemiological factors influence the risk for ASF introduction into disease-free regions. The resulting model was validated using data from the Russian Federation and Mongolia. Finally, the validated model was used to rank and categorize Kazakhstani districts in terms of the risk for serving as the point of entry for ASF into the country, and clusters of districts at highest risk of introduction were identified using the normal model of the spatial scan statistic. Results here will help to allocate resources for surveillance and prevention activities aimed at early detecting a hypothetical ASF introduction into Kazakhstan, ultimately helping to protect the sanitary status of the country.
Author Mukhanbetkaliyev, Yersyn Y
Sultanov, Akhmetzhan A
Perez, Andres M
Abdrakhmanov, Sarsenbay K
Beisembayev, Kanatzhan K
Schettino, Daniella N
Kadyrov, Ablaikhan S
Korennoy, Fedor I
AuthorAffiliation 2 Saken Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical University , Nur-Sultan , Kazakhstan
1 Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN , United States
4 Kazakh Scientific Research Veterinary Institute , Almaty , Kazakhstan
3 FGBI “Federal Centre for Animal Health” (FGBI “ARRIAH”) , Vladimir , Russia
AuthorAffiliation_xml – name: 1 Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN , United States
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– name: 4 Kazakh Scientific Research Veterinary Institute , Almaty , Kazakhstan
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Copyright Copyright © 2021 Schettino, Abdrakhmanov, Beisembayev, Korennoy, Sultanov, Mukhanbetkaliyev, Kadyrov and Perez.
Copyright © 2021 Schettino, Abdrakhmanov, Beisembayev, Korennoy, Sultanov, Mukhanbetkaliyev, Kadyrov and Perez. 2021 Schettino, Abdrakhmanov, Beisembayev, Korennoy, Sultanov, Mukhanbetkaliyev, Kadyrov and Perez
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Keywords African swine fever
Kazakhstan
epidemic
risk map
conjoint analysis
risk analysis
Language English
License Copyright © 2021 Schettino, Abdrakhmanov, Beisembayev, Korennoy, Sultanov, Mukhanbetkaliyev, Kadyrov and Perez.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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This article was submitted to Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, a section of the journal Frontiers in Veterinary Science
Reviewed by: Marco De Nardi, Safoso, Switzerland; Daniel Beltran Alcrudo, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Hungary
Edited by: Ferran Jori, UMR ASTRE - CIRAD, France
These authors share first authorship
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Snippet African swine fever (ASF) is a disease of swine that is endemic to some African countries and that has rapidly spread since 2007 through many regions of Asia...
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StartPage 605910
SubjectTerms African swine fever
conjoint analysis
epidemic
Kazakhstan
risk analysis
risk map
Veterinary Science
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Title Risk for African Swine Fever Introduction Into Kazakhstan
URI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33644144
https://search.proquest.com/docview/2494883541
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC7904699
https://doaj.org/article/3a8df4ea9c3a4ad6bbf0160da4ecbe8b
Volume 8
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