Crude oil price analysis and forecasting: A perspective of “new triangle”

• Published in: Energy economics Vol. 87; p. 104721
• Main Authors: Lu, Quanying, Li, Yuze, Chai, Jian, Wang, Shouyang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier B.V 01.03.2020; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Bayesian analysis; Bayesian model average; Crude oil; Crude oil prices; Data; Data search; Dynamic Bayesian structural time series model; Economic crisis; Energy economics; Financial market; Google trend; Kalman filtering; Oil; Petroleum; Predictions; Shale; Shale oil; Spike and slab prior; Supply & demand; Time series; Turning points; Google trend; C53; C11; C22; Q4; Crude oil; Dynamic Bayesian structural time series model; Bayesian model average; C15; Spike and slab prior; Kalman filtering; C2

In this paper, the new structural characteristics and core influencing factors of the crude oil prices are summarized based on previous representative research results. Firstly, a newly dynamic Bayesian structural time series model (DBSTS) is developed to investigate the oil prices. In particular, G...