Characterizing large earthquakes before rupture is complete

The early stages of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete. Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of...

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Published inScience advances Vol. 5; no. 5; p. eaav2032
Main Authors Melgar, Diego, Hayes, Gavin P.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States American Association for the Advancement of Science 01.05.2019
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ISSN2375-2548
2375-2548
DOI10.1126/sciadv.aav2032

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Abstract The early stages of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete. Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process—after about 10 s—large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished.
AbstractList Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of 7 to 9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process-after about 10 s-large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished.
The early stages of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete. Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process—after about 10 s—large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished.
Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of M7 to M9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process-after about 10 s-large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished.Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of M7 to M9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process-after about 10 s-large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished.
Author Hayes, Gavin P.
Melgar, Diego
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Snippet The early stages of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete. Whether earthquakes of...
Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content...
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Title Characterizing large earthquakes before rupture is complete
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