Characterizing large earthquakes before rupture is complete
The early stages of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete. Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of...
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Published in | Science advances Vol. 5; no. 5; p. eaav2032 |
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Main Authors | , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
United States
American Association for the Advancement of Science
01.05.2019
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
ISSN | 2375-2548 2375-2548 |
DOI | 10.1126/sciadv.aav2032 |
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Abstract | The early stages of
M
7 to
M
9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete.
Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of
M
7 to
M
9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process—after about 10 s—large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished. |
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AbstractList | Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of
7 to
9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process-after about 10 s-large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished. The early stages of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete. Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of M 7 to M 9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process—after about 10 s—large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished. Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of M7 to M9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process-after about 10 s-large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished.Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first seconds of earthquakes scales with magnitude, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that recordings of ground displacement from small to moderate-sized earthquakes are indistinguishable, implying a universal early rupture process. Regardless of how earthquakes start, events of different sizes must be distinguishable at some point. If that difference occurs before the rupture duration of the smaller event, this implies some level of determinism. We show through analysis of a database of source time functions and near-source displacement records that, after an initiation phase, ruptures of M7 to M9 earthquakes organize into a slip pulse, the kinematic properties of which scale with magnitude. Hence, early in the rupture process-after about 10 s-large and very large earthquakes can be distinguished. |
Author | Hayes, Gavin P. Melgar, Diego |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Diego surname: Melgar fullname: Melgar, Diego organization: University of Oregon, Department of Earth Sciences, Eugene, OR, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Gavin P. orcidid: 0000-0003-3323-0112 surname: Hayes fullname: Hayes, Gavin P. organization: U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, CO, USA |
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Snippet | The early stages of
M
7 to
M
9 earthquakes show that large events can be distinguished from larger ones well before rupture is complete.
Whether earthquakes of... Whether earthquakes of different sizes are distinguishable early in their rupture process is a subject of debate. Studies have shown that the frequency content... |
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Title | Characterizing large earthquakes before rupture is complete |
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