Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden

• Published in: Journal of theoretical biology Vol. 530; p. 110874
• Main Authors: Kemp, Françoise, Proverbio, Daniele, Aalto, Atte, Mombaerts, Laurent, Fouquier d’Hérouël, Aymeric, Husch, Andreas, Ley, Christophe, Gonçalves, Jorge, Skupin, Alexander, Magni, Stefano
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 07.12.2021; The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd
• Subjects: Austria; Bayesian inference; COVID-19; Cross-country comparison; Healthcare system; Humans; Immunity, Herd; Luxembourg - epidemiology; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2; SEIR model; Sweden - epidemiology; Vaccination; Austria; Sweden; Luxembourg; Healthcare system; SEIR model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Cross-country comparison; Bayesian inference

•Extend SEIR model with undetected, social interaction, hospitalization, vaccination.•Sweden, Luxembourg and Austria far from herd immunity in December 2020.•Low social interaction levels still required in December 2020 to keep Reff(t) < 1.•Social interactions impact infectious curve more than va...