Testing species distribution models across space and time: high latitude butterflies and recent warming

• Published in: Global ecology and biogeography Vol. 22; no. 12; pp. 1293 - 1303
• Main Authors: Eskildsen, Anne, le Roux, Peter C., Heikkinen, Risto K., Høye, Toke T., Kissling, W. Daniel, Pöyry, Juha, Wisz, Mary S., Luoto, Miska
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2013; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; Blackwell; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biogeography; Biological and medical sciences; Butterflies; Climate change; Climate models; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth, ocean, space; Ecological modeling; Exact sciences and technology; Expanding range margin; External geophysics; Finland; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; global warming; Insect ecology; Insecta; Invertebrates; Land cover; land use; Lepidoptera; Meteorology; Modeling; soil type; Soils; Species; species distribution models; species traits; Statistical models; Synecology; validation; Scandinavia; Europe; Finland; High latitude; Warming; Insecta; species distribution models; species traits; Biogeography; soil type; Ecology; Expanding range margin; Land use; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Soils; Spatial distribution; global warming; Geographic distribution; Arthropoda; Global change; Lepidoptera; Finland; Models; Invertebrata; Distribution range; validation

Aim: To quantify whether species distribution models (SDMs) can reliably forecast species distributions under observed climate change. In particular, to test whether the predictive ability of SDMs depends on species traits or the inclusion of land cover and soil type, and whether distributional chan...