An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 45; no. 15; pp. 7808 - 7817
• Main Authors: Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., Sutton, R. T., Weisheimer, A., Scaife, A. A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 16.08.2018
• Subjects: Agricultural management; Agriculture; Atmospheric forcing; Energy management; Europe; Forecasting; Intercomparison; Noise; North Atlantic Oscillation; Ocean-atmosphere system; predictability; Resource management; Seasonal forecasting; Seasons; Water resources; Water resources management; Winter weather

Recent studies of individual seasonal forecast systems have shown that the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be skillfully forecast. However, it has also been suggested that these skillful forecasts tend to be underconfident, meaning that there is too high a proportion of unpredictable...