Prioritization of delayed vaccination for pandemic influenza

• Published in: Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE Vol. 8; no. 1; pp. 95 - 112
• Main Author: Shim, Eunha
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States AIMS Press 01.01.2011
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age Factors; Aged; Child; Child, Preschool; delay; h1n1; Health Priorities; Humans; influenza; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - immunology; Influenza Vaccines - administration & dosage; Influenza Vaccines - immunology; Influenza, Human - immunology; Influenza, Human - prevention & control; Influenza, Human - transmission; Influenza, Human - virology; Middle Aged; Models, Immunological; Models, Statistical; optimal; pandemic; Pandemics - prevention & control; vaccination; Young Adult
• ISSN: 1551-0018
• DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.95

Limited production capacity and delays in vaccine development are major obstacles to vaccination programs that are designed to mitigate a pandemic influenza. In order to evaluate and compare the impact of various vaccination strategies during a pandemic influenza, we developed an age/risk-structured model of influenza transmission, and parameterized it with epidemiological data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic. Our model predicts that the impact of vaccination would be considerably diminished by delays in vaccination and staggered vaccine supply. Nonetheless, prioritizing limited H1N1 vaccine to individuals with a high risk of complications, followed by school-age children, and then preschool-age children, would minimize an overall attack rate as well as hospitalizations and deaths. This vaccination scheme would maximize the benefits of vaccination by protecting the high-risk people directly, and generating indirect protection by vaccinating children who are most likely to transmit the disease.