Drought-related tree mortality: addressing the gaps in understanding and prediction
Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought-related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and...
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| Published in | The New phytologist Vol. 207; no. 1; pp. 28 - 33 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
England
New Phytologist Trust
01.07.2015
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0028-646X 1469-8137 1469-8137 |
| DOI | 10.1111/nph.13382 |
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| Abstract | Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought-related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and the recognition that current vegetation models do not predict drought-related tree mortality and forest dieback well despite the large potential effects of these processes on species composition and biogeochemical cycling. To date, the emphasis has been on understanding the causal mechanisms of drought-related tree mortality, and on mechanistic models of plant function and vegetation dynamics, but a consensus on those mechanisms has yet to emerge. In order to generate new hypotheses and to help advance the modelling of vegetation dynamics in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding, we suggest that general patterns should be distilled from the diverse and as-yet inconclusive results of existing studies, and more use should be made of optimisation and probabilistic modelling approaches that have been successfully applied elsewhere in plant ecology. The outcome should inform new empirical studies of tree mortality, help improve its prediction and reduce model complexity. |
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| AbstractList | 28 I. [I.] 28 II. [II.] 29 III. [III.] 30 IV. [IV.] 31 [Acknowledg] 31 References 31 Summary Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought-related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and the recognition that current vegetation models do not predict drought-related tree mortality and forest dieback well despite the large potential effects of these processes on species composition and biogeochemical cycling. To date, the emphasis has been on understanding the causal mechanisms of drought-related tree mortality, and on mechanistic models of plant function and vegetation dynamics, but a consensus on those mechanisms has yet to emerge. In order to generate new hypotheses and to help advance the modelling of vegetation dynamics in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding, we suggest that general patterns should be distilled from the diverse and as-yet inconclusive results of existing studies, and more use should be made of optimisation and probabilistic modelling approaches that have been successfully applied elsewhere in plant ecology. The outcome should inform new empirical studies of tree mortality, help improve its prediction and reduce model complexity. 28 I. 28 II. 29 III. 30 IV. 31 31 References 31 SUMMARY: Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought‐related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and the recognition that current vegetation models do not predict drought‐related tree mortality and forest dieback well despite the large potential effects of these processes on species composition and biogeochemical cycling. To date, the emphasis has been on understanding the causal mechanisms of drought‐related tree mortality, and on mechanistic models of plant function and vegetation dynamics, but a consensus on those mechanisms has yet to emerge. In order to generate new hypotheses and to help advance the modelling of vegetation dynamics in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding, we suggest that general patterns should be distilled from the diverse and as‐yet inconclusive results of existing studies, and more use should be made of optimisation and probabilistic modelling approaches that have been successfully applied elsewhere in plant ecology. The outcome should inform new empirical studies of tree mortality, help improve its prediction and reduce model complexity. Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought-related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and the recognition that current vegetation models do not predict drought-related tree mortality and forest dieback well despite the large potential effects of these processes on species composition and biogeochemical cycling. To date, the emphasis has been on understanding the causal mechanisms of drought-related tree mortality, and on mechanistic models of plant function and vegetation dynamics, but a consensus on those mechanisms has yet to emerge. In order to generate new hypotheses and to help advance the modelling of vegetation dynamics in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding, we suggest that general patterns should be distilled from the diverse and as-yet inconclusive results of existing studies, and more use should be made of optimisation and probabilistic modelling approaches that have been successfully applied elsewhere in plant ecology. The outcome should inform new empirical studies of tree mortality, help improve its prediction and reduce model complexity.Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought-related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and the recognition that current vegetation models do not predict drought-related tree mortality and forest dieback well despite the large potential effects of these processes on species composition and biogeochemical cycling. To date, the emphasis has been on understanding the causal mechanisms of drought-related tree mortality, and on mechanistic models of plant function and vegetation dynamics, but a consensus on those mechanisms has yet to emerge. In order to generate new hypotheses and to help advance the modelling of vegetation dynamics in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding, we suggest that general patterns should be distilled from the diverse and as-yet inconclusive results of existing studies, and more use should be made of optimisation and probabilistic modelling approaches that have been successfully applied elsewhere in plant ecology. The outcome should inform new empirical studies of tree mortality, help improve its prediction and reduce model complexity. 28 I. 28 II. 29 III. 30 IV. 31 31 References 31 Summary Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought‐related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and the recognition that current vegetation models do not predict drought‐related tree mortality and forest dieback well despite the large potential effects of these processes on species composition and biogeochemical cycling. To date, the emphasis has been on understanding the causal mechanisms of drought‐related tree mortality, and on mechanistic models of plant function and vegetation dynamics, but a consensus on those mechanisms has yet to emerge. In order to generate new hypotheses and to help advance the modelling of vegetation dynamics in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding, we suggest that general patterns should be distilled from the diverse and as‐yet inconclusive results of existing studies, and more use should be made of optimisation and probabilistic modelling approaches that have been successfully applied elsewhere in plant ecology. The outcome should inform new empirical studies of tree mortality, help improve its prediction and reduce model complexity. Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought‐related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and the recognition that current vegetation models do not predict drought‐related tree mortality and forest dieback well despite the large potential effects of these processes on species composition and biogeochemical cycling. To date, the emphasis has been on understanding the causal mechanisms of drought‐related tree mortality, and on mechanistic models of plant function and vegetation dynamics, but a consensus on those mechanisms has yet to emerge. In order to generate new hypotheses and to help advance the modelling of vegetation dynamics in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding, we suggest that general patterns should be distilled from the diverse and as‐yet inconclusive results of existing studies, and more use should be made of optimisation and probabilistic modelling approaches that have been successfully applied elsewhere in plant ecology. The outcome should inform new empirical studies of tree mortality, help improve its prediction and reduce model complexity. Contents Summary 28 I. Introduction 28 II. Gaps in our mechanistic understanding of drought‐related tree mortality 29 III. Modelling mortality in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding 30 IV. Conclusion 31 Acknowledgements 31 References 31 Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that drought-related tree mortality is more widespread than previously thought; the predicted increase in the frequency of climate extremes this century; and the recognition that current vegetation models do not predict drought-related tree mortality and forest dieback well despite the large potential effects of these processes on species composition and biogeochemical cycling. To date, the emphasis has been on understanding the causal mechanisms of drought-related tree mortality, and on mechanistic models of plant function and vegetation dynamics, but a consensus on those mechanisms has yet to emerge. In order to generate new hypotheses and to help advance the modelling of vegetation dynamics in the face of incomplete mechanistic understanding, we suggest that general patterns should be distilled from the diverse and as-yet inconclusive results of existing studies, and more use should be made of optimisation and probabilistic modelling approaches that have been successfully applied elsewhere in plant ecology. The outcome should inform new empirical studies of tree mortality, help improve its prediction and reduce model complexity. |
| Author | Patrick Meir Maurizio Mencuccini Roderick C. Dewar |
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| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25816852$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | modelling vegetation dynamics tree mortality drought drought physiology tropical forests |
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| Snippet | Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This focus has been driven by: the realisation that... 28 I. 28 II. 29 III. 30 IV. 31 31 References 31 Summary Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This... 28 I. [I.] 28 II. [II.] 29 III. [III.] 30 IV. [IV.] 31 [Acknowledg] 31 References 31 Summary Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a... 28 I. 28 II. 29 III. 30 IV. 31 31 References 31 SUMMARY: Increased tree mortality during and after drought has become a research focus in recent years. This... |
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| SubjectTerms | Biogeochemical cycles Biogeochemistry Biomechanical Phenomena climate Climate models Community composition Dieback Drought drought physiology Droughts Dynamics forests mechanistic models Model testing Modelling modelling vegetation dynamics Models, Biological Mortality Optimization Plant ecology prediction probabilistic models Species composition species diversity Tansley insight tree mortality Trees Trees - physiology tropical forests Vegetation |
| Title | Drought-related tree mortality: addressing the gaps in understanding and prediction |
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