Full circle: The diffusion of technology
This is our third study of the diffusion of technology. The titles of the previous reports clearly indicate the stages of the technologies selected as subjects of their analyses: ‘The diffusion of new technology’ [1,2] first published in 1969, followed in 1983 by ‘The diffusion of mature technologie...
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| Published in | Research policy Vol. 18; no. 1; pp. 1 - 18 |
|---|---|
| Main Author | |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
01.02.1989
Elsevier Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| Series | Research Policy |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0048-7333 1873-7625 |
| DOI | 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6 |
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| Abstract | This is our third study of the diffusion of technology. The titles of the previous reports clearly indicate the stages of the technologies selected as subjects of their analyses: ‘The diffusion of
new technology’ [1,2] first published in 1969, followed in 1983 by ‘The diffusion of
mature technologies’ [3,4]. The present paper aims at closing the circle with the analysis of the diffusion of the same technologies in recent years when some of them have been nearing — or indeed have reached —
saturation. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | A recent study of the diffusion of technology focuses on technologies that are approaching or have reached saturation. These are: 1. the basic oxygen process of steelmaking, 2. continuous casting, 3. tunnel kilns in brickmaking, 4. float glass, 5. shuttleless looms in the textile industry, and 6. numerically controlled machine tools, including robots and flexible manufacturing systems. The first 4 technologies cannot be adopted without the building of a major new plant, which requires considerable investment capital. The latter 2 can be adopted piecemeal within the existing plant at relatively moderate cost. Although adverse business conditions may have a depressing effect on investment in general, the installation of new technology may continue regardless, provided it offers significant enough advantages. Indeed, its adoption may be a condition of survival in difficult periods. The path of diffusion of technology generally follows an S-curve, but the "S" is irregular and shaped differently for each technology and country. Macroeconomic indicators help to explain international differences in diffusion. This is our third study of the diffusion of technology. The titles of the previous reports clearly indicate the stages of the technologies selected as subjects of their analyses: ‘The diffusion of new technology’ [1,2] first published in 1969, followed in 1983 by ‘The diffusion of mature technologies’ [3,4]. The present paper aims at closing the circle with the analysis of the diffusion of the same technologies in recent years when some of them have been nearing — or indeed have reached — saturation. |
| Author | Ray, George F. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: George F. surname: Ray fullname: Ray, George F. organization: National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2 Dean Trench Street, London SW1P 3 HE, U.K |
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| References | Ray (BIB13) 1984 BIB8 Ray (BIB4) 1984 Horn, Klodt, Saunders (BIB12) 1985 Meier (BIB10) January 1986 (International Textile Manufacturers' Federation, Zurich, various issues). (British Ceramic Research Association, Stoke-on-Trent, various issues). Iley (BIB7) March 1984 (United Nations, New York, various issues). Rosenberg, Metcalfe, Gold (BIB14) 1976; 13 (BIB3) November 1983 (BIB1) May 1969 (BIB2) 1974 BIB11 (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB3) 1983 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB6 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB5 Gold (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB14_3) 1980; 8 Rosenberg (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB14_1) 1976 Horn (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB12) 1985 (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB2) 1974 (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB1) 1969 Ray (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB4) 1984 Meier (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB10) 1986 Ray (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB13) 1984 Metcalfe (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB14_2) 1981; 13 Iley (10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB7) 1984 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB9 |
| References_xml | – year: May 1969 ident: BIB1 publication-title: National Institute Economic Review – start-page: 83 year: 1984 end-page: 84 ident: BIB13 article-title: The diffusion of mature technologies – volume: 13 start-page: 347 year: 1976 end-page: 359 ident: BIB14 article-title: Perspectives on technology publication-title: Futures – year: November 1983 ident: BIB3 publication-title: National Institute Economic Review – year: 1974 ident: BIB2 publication-title: The diffusion of new industrial processes – reference: (United Nations, New York, various issues). – reference: , (International Textile Manufacturers' Federation, Zurich, various issues). – year: January 1986 ident: BIB10 article-title: Produktion und Einsatz moderner Fertigungs-technik im internationalen Vergleich publication-title: IW-Trends – year: 1985 ident: BIB12 article-title: Advanced machine tools: production, diffusion and trade publication-title: Europe and the new technologies – year: March 1984 ident: BIB7 article-title: Float glass and its impact on the flat glass industry publication-title: Glass International – ident: BIB8 – reference: (British Ceramic Research Association, Stoke-on-Trent, various issues). – ident: BIB11 – year: 1984 ident: BIB4 article-title: The diffusion of mature technologies – year: 1983 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB3 publication-title: National Institute Economic Review – year: 1974 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB2 – year: 1985 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB12 article-title: Advanced machine tools: production, diffusion and trade – ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB5 – year: 1984 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB4 – year: 1969 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB1 publication-title: National Institute Economic Review – year: 1976 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB14_1 – year: 1984 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB7 article-title: Float glass and its impact on the flat glass industry publication-title: Glass International – year: 1986 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB10 article-title: Produktion und Einsatz moderner Fertigungs-technik im internationalen Vergleich publication-title: IW-Trends – ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB9 – ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB6 – volume: 13 start-page: 347 year: 1981 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB14_2 article-title: Impulse and diffusion in the study of technical change publication-title: Futures doi: 10.1016/0016-3287(81)90120-8 – volume: 8 start-page: 505 year: 1980 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB14_3 article-title: On the adoption of T.I. in industry: significant models and complex decision processes publication-title: Omega doi: 10.1016/0305-0483(80)90083-3 – start-page: 83 year: 1984 ident: 10.1016/0048-7333(89)90048-6_BIB13 article-title: The diffusion of mature technologies |
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| Snippet | This is our third study of the diffusion of technology. The titles of the previous reports clearly indicate the stages of the technologies selected as subjects... A recent study of the diffusion of technology focuses on technologies that are approaching or have reached saturation. These are: 1. the basic oxygen process... |
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| SubjectTerms | Building materials industry Continuous casting Glass & glassware industry High technology Machine tool industry Manycountries Methods Numerical controls Robots Statistical data Steel industry Technological change Technologietransfer Textile industry |
| Title | Full circle: The diffusion of technology |
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